Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $100,000. It is now approaching a Bitcoin death cross, a technical event where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA.

Historically, this pattern has often appeared near market bottoms. However, the macro environment and the market structure of 2025 are no longer the same as in previous cycles. This raises a critical question: Is this the actual bottom, or merely one step in a more extended capitulation phase?

Death Cross Incoming: Data, History, and Short-Term Outlook

Several analysts have been watching the approaching Bitcoin death cross. The 50-day SMA is expected to cross below the 200-day SMA within the next few days.

According to analyst Colin, the upcoming Bitcoin death cross is expected around mid-November, which means it is only 1–2 days away. Before it happens, Colin expects BTC to decline further, with altcoins potentially dropping even more. This aligns with BTC’s recent retracement below $100,000.

“The projected Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ (50 day crossing below 200 day SMA) is a timing element for when the bottom might be in.” Colin commented.

Multiple observations also support the idea that BTC typically forms a bottom around such events, although timing may vary. Another analyst on X detailed the pattern’s occurrence over the past 7 years.

Between 2018 and April 2025, Bitcoin has experienced at least eight death cross events. Each time, BTC formed a local bottom within 5–9 days and rallied at least 45% from the lows. If we consider the recent dip below $100,000 as a local bottom, projections suggest BTC could rise to at least $145,000 afterward.

BTC performance after each Bitcoin death cross. Source: X

Supporting this view, analyst Ash Crypto noted that in the last three death crosses, Bitcoin bottomed within a week before rallying strongly to new all-time highs.

Analysts predict the BTC price will reach an ATH after the death cross. Source: Ash Crypto

However, some analysts present a more cautious scenario. Another X user points out that while the Bitcoin death cross is indeed about to form, the average maximum loss following the cross is typically over 30% within 12 months. Historically, BTC takes an average of 141 days to reach a peak after a cross.

If the death cross occurs in mid-November with BTC hovering around $100,000, this model suggests a potential retracement toward the $70,000 region. A new upward cycle may then resume.

Future Scenarios: Quick Capitulation Followed by Recovery, or a Prolonged Downtrend?

If the Bitcoin death cross aligns with a final capitulation flush, history suggests a sharp rebound in the weeks that follow. Conversely, if macro conditions worsen, the death cross could instead signal a deeper correction, consistent with the historical average drawdown of roughly 30% within a year.

It is also essential to note that a death cross is primarily a timing indicator, not a guarantee of a bottom or a top. Traders should consider factors like trading volume, RSI/MACD divergences, on-chain activity, and stablecoin liquidity. These help assess the probability more accurately.

At the current moment, the higher-probability scenario is a short-term capitulation, followed by the formation of the Bitcoin death cross, and then a strong rebound. Still, short-term traders should manage risk carefully: set appropriate stop-loss levels and wait for recovery confirmation, such as a daily close above the SMA50 with rising volume, before allocating heavily.