Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a closely watched technical threshold as it approaches the 61% Fibonacci “golden level,” renewing market interest among traders during a period of heightened volatility.
This retracement zone—often monitored by experienced traders for possible reactions—comes as BTC recently printed a bullish daily candle, raising the question of whether short-term momentum might shift.
BTC Price Today: Market Overview
Bitcoin price today has been fluctuating between $94,000 and $97,500, extending a week of notable swings. BTC is down nearly 7% over the past seven days and about 14% on the monthly chart, reflecting broader market pressure. Even so, the latest bullish daily close hints at a potential corrective bounce, a pattern traders often look for after sharp retracements.
On-chain data from analytics firm IntoTheBlock shows Bitcoin’s transaction volume surged to $45.6 billion on November 15, the highest in a month. Roughly 516,000 BTC moved during this period, signaling elevated market participation despite declining prices.
Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain transaction volume surged to $45.6 billion, marking the highest level in a month. Source: Ali Martinez via X
On-chain analyst Ali, who tracks volume-spike behavior, observed that these surges have recently aligned with price declines and ETF outflows—often a sign of profit-taking rather than heightened accumulation.
Fibonacci Retracement and the “Golden Level”
Fibonacci retracement levels—23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%—are widely used in trading to identify areas where momentum may pause.The 61.8% level, or “golden level,” is particularly important because it often marks the point where about 61% of the previous rally has been given back, creating an area where buyers historically look for value entries.
Bitcoin (BTC) is at the 61% Fibonacci “golden level,” with yesterday’s bullish candle hinting at possible continued upward momentum. Source: NICHOULUSTPTRADER on TradingView
As someone familiar with how traders use Fibonacci tools in fast-moving markets, this level typically serves more as a reaction zone than a guaranteed reversal point. Many traders place alerts here to gauge whether liquidity increases or whether sellers remain in control.
Technical strategist Ted notes that this level often becomes a psychological decision point: buyers may attempt to defend it, while short-term traders use it to lock in profits.
Technical Indicators and Market Structure
On the daily chart, Bitcoin currently shows a bearish market structure. The price has printed a lower low (LL)—meaning BTC fell below its previous swing low—confirming short-term downward momentum.
A break of structure (BOS) below $98,000 further reinforced this shift, as a BOS generally signals weakening bullish control after key support levels fail.
Bitcoin (BTC) is in a bearish structure after breaking key support around $98,186 and a trendline, with a potential short-term bounce but likely drop toward $77,000–$74,500. Source: phaneth2014 on TradingView
The chart has also revealed trendline (TL) breaks, a classic sign that the prior bullish phase has cooled. Based on liquidity distribution, BTC could potentially gravitate toward deeper zones between $88,000 and $84,000, with extended downside targets around $77,000 to $74,500. These levels are derived from historical liquidity clusters—not fixed predictions—and depend heavily on broader market sentiment.
Still, short-term bullish scenarios are not off the table. If BTC retests previously broken trendlines, a rebound toward $98,000–$100,000 remains possible.Market researchers suggest this scenario currently carries a modest probability, as recent volume patterns and momentum indicators do not yet support prolonged upside. These estimates are model-based approximations, not precise probabilities.
Market Sentiment and ETF Impact
Institutional flows continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in outflows this week, with BlackRock accounting for roughly $532 million of the withdrawals.
According to technical strategist Ted, such outflows may contribute to selling pressure, especially when they occur alongside high-volume profit-taking. However, correlation does not always equal causation; the relationship between ETF flows and price action varies based on broader market conditions.
At the same time, exchange-based BTC reserves have dropped to multi-month lows. Reduced reserves typically imply fewer coins available to sell, and long-term holders often reduce supply during periods of uncertainty.For long-term investors, declining reserves may indicate confidence, while short-term traders may view it as a sign of tightening liquidity.
Bitcoin Predictions: Short-Term Outlook
Market participants remain divided on whether Bitcoin has already formed a local bottom. Some traders view the $94,000 support as a potential short-term floor, especially given the 61% Fibonacci reaction zone. Others warn that structural breakdowns could pave the way for deeper retracements toward $74,000—particularly if volatility spikes further.
Bitcoin was trading at around 95,645.72, down 0.30% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
Market analyst and researcher Maxwell Mutuma, who studies volume gaps and institutional behavior, notes that existing CME gaps near $92,000 and lingering Wyckoff distribution patterns point to the possibility of one more downward sweep before a sustained recovery.
These are interpretive signals rather than certainties and rely on historical tendencies rather than predictive guarantees.
Looking Ahead: BTC Price Forecast and Key Levels
In summary, Bitcoin currently leans bearish in the mid-term, though short-term relief bounces remain plausible. Key levels to watch include:
Support: $94,000; $88,000–$84,000; $77,000–$74,500
Resistance: $98,000–$100,000
Technical zone of interest: 61% Fibonacci retracement
For traders, these areas may help identify volatility pockets and potential reaction zones. Long-term holders, meanwhile, may focus more on macro drivers such as ETF flows, liquidity conditions, and exchange reserve trends.
As always, price forecasts remain speculative. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim key resistance levels, attract renewed institutional inflows, and stabilize market structure will determine whether the recent dip becomes a deeper correction or the start of a recovery phase.
