Bitcoin has fallen below its $100,000 support level and now trades near $95,000, but growing stablecoin exchange reserves suggest a potential recovery could materialize in the coming weeks, according to on-chain analytics firm XWIN Research Japan. The cryptocurrency currently sits beneath its 365-day moving average of $102,000, a technical breakdown that historically precedes extended bearish periods.

What to Know:

• Stablecoin exchange reserves are reaching record highs in 2025, with past accumulation periods preceding major Bitcoin price rallies in July, August-September, and October
• Historical patterns show Bitcoin price reactions to increased stablecoin liquidity can take anywhere from several days to multiple weeks to materialize
• Bitcoin's breach below its yearly moving average of $102,000 presents a bearish signal, with potential downside targets at $92,000 and $72,000 if demand fails to recover

Bitcoin Struggles as Stablecoin Reserves Signal Potential Recovery

Bitcoin's price has stagnated through the first half of November. The cryptocurrency now hovers around $95,000 after losing its psychological $100,000 support level. Despite this sluggish performance, on-chain data reveals a pattern that has historically preceded significant price rallies.

XWIN Research Japan reported in a recent post on CryptoQuant that stablecoin exchange reserves continue to increase rapidly. These reserves now stand at their highest levels of 2025. The pattern matters because previous episodes of stablecoin accumulation have preceded major Bitcoin price expansions.

The firm pointed to July 2025 as one example. Bitcoin traded sideways around $100,000 during that period while stablecoin liquidity grew exponentially. Weeks later, the cryptocurrency broke through resistance and reached approximately $110,000.

A similar sequence unfolded from mid-August through late September. Exchange reserves grew by more than $8 billion within 30 days while Bitcoin showed minimal directional movement.

By late September, the cryptocurrency surged to an all-time high of $126,000. Another round of substantial stablecoin accumulation occurred in late September and early October, which also preceded Bitcoin's push to new highs before a crash in mid-October.

Historical Precedent Shows Mixed Timeline for Price Response

The correlation between stablecoin accumulation and subsequent Bitcoin rallies appears consistent, but the timing of price reactions varies considerably. "Sometimes the reaction comes within days; other times, it takes several weeks," XWIN Research explained. This inconsistency makes precise predictions difficult despite the recurring pattern.

The analytics firm suggested that a macro event could serve as a catalyst to activate the dormant liquidity now sitting in stablecoin reserves.

The December Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents one potential trigger. The significant liquidity currently available could fuel the next substantial price recovery if market conditions align.

However, not all analysts share this optimistic outlook. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, offered a more cautious assessment in a post on X. He noted that Bitcoin has slipped beneath its 365-day moving average of $102,000. Based on historical trends, Moreno argued that recovery from such a failure is "pretty difficult" and suggested the market may be entering a bearish phase. His analysis points to potential support levels at $92,000 and $72,000 if the selling pressure continues.

Understanding the Market Signals

Stablecoin exchange reserves represent dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies held on trading platforms, typically indicating capital ready for deployment into other digital assets like Bitcoin. When these reserves increase substantially, it suggests investors are positioning funds for potential purchases. The reserves function as dry powder that can quickly enter the market when sentiment shifts or specific price levels attract buying interest.

The 365-day moving average serves as a long-term trend indicator calculated by averaging Bitcoin's closing prices over the previous year. When the current price drops below this average, it often signals weakening momentum and can indicate the beginning of extended downward pressure. Conversely, trading above this metric typically suggests sustained bullish conditions.

Market Outlook Remains Uncertain

Bitcoin's current position presents conflicting signals for traders and investors. The substantial stablecoin reserves suggest significant buying power remains available, but the breach of the yearly moving average points to potential further downside. Any meaningful recovery would require a sentiment turnaround and substantial demand entering the market. As of now, Bitcoin trades at approximately $95,030, showing minimal movement over the past 24 hours.