Bitcoin’s recent dip below $94,000 has captured global attention, as traders and investors weigh whether this correction signals a short-term liquidity sweep or the start of a bullish rebound.
The leading cryptocurrency’s pullback comes amid heightened market caution, with technical indicators and historical patterns offering clues for potential recovery. By analyzing price structure, sentiment, and macro factors, we can better understand Bitcoin’s next possible moves.
BTC Retreats Amid Elevated Fear
On November 16, 2025, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $93,684 before recovering to around $95,087 (TradingView data). This marked its lowest level since May and coincided with heightened market caution.
Bitcoin remains in a clear bearish trend, with price rejecting supply zones and holding below the $96.5K–$97K resistance, favoring sell-the-pullback setups toward lower support levels. Source: Mo Alhameli on TradingView
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which quantifies market sentiment, currently stands at 10, indicating extreme fear (Source: Alternative.me). Social engagement around Bitcoin spiked during this decline, according to Santiment, reaching a four-month high in Bitcoin-related mentions. Historically, such sentiment spikes often precede short-term rebounds.
Our chart review shows that BTC’s recent wick below $94K resembles prior liquidity sweeps observed during consolidation phases in 2021 and 2024, suggesting that some selling may have been short-term stop hunts rather than trend reversals.
Technical Indicators and Market Structure
Bitcoin’s price action shows signs of potential recovery, but indicators warrant careful interpretation:
Inverse Head & Shoulders (IH&S): Observed on the weekly chart, this pattern has historically led to breakouts in 3 of the last 5 occurrences on BTC. It can indicate a shift from bearish to bullish momentum if confirmed with volume and price action (Source: TradingView historical analysis).
Elliott Wave Theory: BTC appears to be on the fourth leg of a five-wave corrective sequence, which could set up a fifth-wave recovery. While Elliott Wave patterns provide a framework for understanding cycles, they are probabilistic rather than predictive.
A cluster of technical and macro signals suggests mounting potential for a bullish break. Source: Rogue1trader on TradingView
Monthly Pivot Levels: BTC currently trades near a monthly pivot, with immediate resistance at $96,500–$97,000, secondary resistance at $98,000–$98,500, and key levels above $100,500. Support zones lie at $93,900, $92,800, and $91,000. Pivot points often serve as dynamic support and resistance based on historical price clustering.
Death Cross: A 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average signals potential short-term weakness. Historically, BTC has rebounded from such events within weeks to months, but caution is warranted.
Macro and External Factors
Several broader factors could influence BTC’s trajectory:
Bitcoin ETFs and ISO 20022 Adoption: The potential approval of additional Bitcoin ETFs and the global adoption of ISO 20022 messaging standards could increase institutional participation and cross-border liquidity. For instance, CME filings indicate growing ETF interest, while SWIFT updates note ongoing ISO 20022 migration (Sources: CME Group, SWIFT).
Macroeconomic Developments: Proposed U.S. fiscal policies, such as tariff-funded dividend plans, may indirectly affect liquidity conditions for risk assets, though the direct impact on crypto markets remains speculative (Source: U.S. Treasury commentary).
Asset Performance Comparison: According to CME and commodity market data, gold futures are up approximately 55% YTD, compared to Bitcoin’s roughly 1% gain over the same period. This divergence highlights differing market cycles and investor sentiment.
Historical Context
Historically, Bitcoin has recovered from drawdowns of 30–50%, with some cycles generating gains of up to fourfold (Reference: Smith & Johnson, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2024, Vol. 17, Issue 4). These patterns underscore the resilience of BTC over long-term cycles, though past performance is not indicative of future results.
The post humorously frames Bitcoin’s sharp correction as temporary, echoing historical rebound patterns. Source: C Zar The Great via X
Risk and Scenario Planning
While technical setups suggest potential upside, traders should consider downside scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: A sustained break below $91,000 could trigger further declines toward $83,500, as highlighted by analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Bullish Scenario: A confirmed IH&S breakout with strong volume could propel BTC above $97,000, followed by testing $100,500–$100,800 resistance.
Neutral Takeaway: Traders may monitor whether BTC can reclaim the 50-day moving average, which has historically acted as dynamic support throughout previous bull cycles. Observing volume, pivot levels, and macro catalysts together can provide a more comprehensive risk assessment.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin currently sits at a critical juncture. Short-term price fluctuations under $96K–$97K are possible, but technical patterns, historical trends, and potential macro catalysts suggest both upside and downside risks.
Bitcoin was trading at around 94,874.43, down 1.10% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
Investors should approach BTC with balanced risk management, closely monitor key support and resistance levels, and avoid assuming any technical signal guarantees a particular outcome.
