Bitcoin fell 6% on Tuesday to $89,368, but Arthur Hayes says the worst isn’t over for the cryptocurrency market.
In his latest essay, the BitMEX co-founder argued that a liquidity drought in the US financial system is squeezing Bitcoin. The current selloff is not a collapse in investor confidence, but an adjustment to prevailing market conditions that do not favour risk-on sentiments, according to Hayes.
And amid the deteriorating investor psychology, Hayes predicts Bitcoin has only one way to go: down.
“Bitcoin could absolutely drop to $80,000 to $85,000 during this period of weakness,” Hayes wrote.
Hayes’ stark warning lands in a market already steeped in dread, as analysts blame both macro tightening and US President Donald Trump’s economic posture for the malaise.
Crypto believers touted President Trump’s return to the White House as a bullish accelerant for cryptocurrencies. Instead, uncertainty and policy feints have amplified the market’s downturn.
Bitcoin has declined 28% since reaching its peak of $126,000 in October.
“We don’t expect any good news to come out of the White House in the coming months, and Bitcoin trading confidence is at an all-time low in 2025,” Houston Morgan, head of growth and business development at decentralised exchange ShapeShift, said in comments shared with DL News.
“The winter will be long, and we need to work to untether the toxic relationship between Bitcoin and [President] Trump before we are to see a bull run again, which could be as late as [the second quarter] of 2026,” Morgan said. “We could even see Bitcoin go as low as $80,000 this year.”
However, Hayes says the market can rebound quickly if policymakers or market forces push fresh dollars back into the system.
If that happens, “Bitcoin could zoom towards $200,000 or $250,000 at year’s end,” Hayes wrote.
Earlier this month, Hayes signalled the Federal Reserve could “reignite” Bitcoin’s bull market if it pivots to stealth quantitative easing, a liquidity reboot, disguised as policy prudence.
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? Please contact him at [email protected].
