Ahead of schedule, Metaculus now predicts that quantum computers could factor an RSA number using Shor’s algorithm by 2034. This is almost 20 years sooner than the previous forecast of 2052.
These swift advancements raise urgent concerns for the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries, which depend on modern cryptography for security and trust.
Quantum Computing Progress Shortens “Q-day” Timeline
“Q-day” defines the moment when quantum computers can break widely used cryptographic systems. New forecasts suggest this milestone may come within the next decade.
Metaculus, a prediction platform that tracks scientific advances, has sharply moved up the estimate for when a quantum computer using Shor’s algorithm will factor an RSA number.
The shift from 2052 to 2034 could be attributed to quantum breakthroughs, advancements in error correction, and increasing investment in quantum research. This poses risks to the security of financial systems, government communications, and blockchain networks worldwide, including major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC).
“That gives us median estimate ~10 years before modern public key crypto is definitively broken. (That said, can happen sooner! It’s not a point estimate, but a distribution, fuzzy on both the downside and upside.),” Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly said.
Projected Timeline for Quantum Computers to Factor RSA via Shor’s Algorithm. Source: Metaculus
In a recent post, Qureshi emphasized that successfully running Shor’s algorithm, a quantum algorithm capable of breaking classical cryptography in theory, does not equate to breaking a real-world 256-bit elliptic-curve key used across modern blockchains. He added that,
“You can use Shor’s algorithm to factor a number—that will be impressive—but will take a huge degree of scaling and engineering to factor a number with hundreds of digits.”
Still, Qureshi described the trend as “important to take seriously,” while stressing that the threat remains far from imminent. Even if quantum progress continues ahead of schedule, he argued, the industry still has a window of several years to coordinate a response.
According to Qureshi, all blockchains will eventually need to migrate to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This is a large-scale upgrade that would require extensive coordination across networks, developers, and users. He estimates that an orderly transition would require at least four years, highlighting the urgency of beginning the planning process.
Experts Warn Quantum Q-Day Could Hit as Early as 2028
However, cryptocurrency analyst Nic Carter argues that Q-day may come even sooner, suggesting a window between 2028 and 2033.
“I was looking at that chart today. It’s down massively from a couple years ago. Doesn’t inspire confidence. Based on my survey of available evidence, I am confident projecting Q day between 2028 and 2033,” Carter wrote.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also addressed these concerns at the Devconnect conference. He warned that elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) may be at risk sooner than the industry thought.
Buterin suggested that quantum computers might become powerful enough to undermine Ethereum’s security model even before the 2028 US presidential election.
The Quantum Doomsday Clock project likewise warns that quantum machines could be capable of breaking today’s encryption as early as March 2028. Several other experts also anticipate similar risks appearing within the next few years.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector is beginning to address the quantum threat. Researchers are working on quantum-resistant signature schemes and planning migration paths.
As quantum computing accelerates, the cryptocurrency community faces a tough race. Q-day may come as soon as 2028 or as late as 2034.
Regardless, the threat means post-quantum security must now take center stage. The coming years will show whether the industry can move quickly enough to stay ahead of quantum advances.
