TLDR
Tesla shares fell 0.8% to $405.79 in premarket trading Tuesday as markets await Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report
Wall Street expects Nvidia to report $54.8 billion in third-quarter revenue, up from $35.1 billion last year
Tesla holds a $1.2 trillion valuation despite declining deliveries and tightening margins in 2025
Musk claims Optimus humanoid robot could represent 80% of Tesla’s future value with pricing at $20,000-$30,000
Robotics experts question Tesla’s timeline and ability to scale production given past missed deadlines
Tesla shares slipped in Tuesday’s premarket session as Wall Street shifted focus to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings. The stock dropped 0.8% to $405.79 ahead of the chip maker’s Wednesday evening report.
Tesla, Inc., TSLA
S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% while Dow futures declined 0.5%. Nvidia shares traded down 0.7% at $185.27.
The move is small for Tesla. Daily swings have averaged about 3% over the past month, with six sessions showing moves exceeding 4%.
Analysts expect Nvidia to post third-quarter sales of $54.8 billion, up from $35.1 billion a year earlier. Fourth-quarter guidance should target $62.1 billion, according to Wall Street estimates.
The connection matters because both companies have become AI investments. Tesla uses artificial intelligence to train autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.
Year to date, Tesla stock was up 1% through Tuesday. Over 12 months, shares gained 21%.
The AI Market Shift
Citi retail analyst Steven Zaccone pointed out how dramatically the market has changed. Retail stocks now make up just 6% of the Magnificent Seven’s combined value, down from 14% in 2022.
Tech and AI companies dominate trading. Nvidia’s results will likely set the tone for markets through year-end.
That explains why Tesla investors are paying attention to what CEO Jensen Huang says Wednesday. The chip maker powers the computing behind most AI applications.
Optimus Robot Economics
Tesla’s valuation seems disconnected from its car business. Deliveries dropped 6% in the first nine months of 2025. Margins are under pressure. The Cybertruck underperformed expectations.
Yet the stock is up 6% this year and maintains a $1.2 trillion market cap. Investors are betting on physical AI: self-driving cars, robotaxis, and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Musk says Optimus could account for 80% of Tesla’s long-term value. His $1 trillion stock compensation plan is tied to achieving major Optimus goals.
Tesla is targeting initial pricing between $20,000 and $30,000 per unit. Boston Dynamics’ Atlas robot costs over $100,000 by comparison.
Production plans call for several thousand units in 2025, scaling to 50,000 in 2026. The company believes robots could pay for themselves within a year for many high-wage positions.
The global workforce includes 3.7 billion people. Developed markets account for roughly 800 million workers. Capturing just 1% of that market would generate hundreds of billions in revenue.
Production Challenges
Current demonstrations show Optimus walking, balancing, and lifting light objects in controlled environments. Real-world performance remains unproven.
Boston Dynamics has spent decades developing advanced robotics but hasn’t launched a commercial general-purpose humanoid. Experts question whether Tesla can solve problems that have stumped the industry.
Building a million robots annually would require entirely new supply chains for actuators, sensors, and specialized components. Much of this infrastructure doesn’t exist.
China supplies critical rare earth magnets for robot actuators. Companies like Inovance Technology and Estun provide precision servo motors. Trade tensions create supply chain risks.
No company has demonstrated large-scale consumer or business demand for general-purpose humanoid robots. The market remains theoretical.
Musk previously promised robotaxis by 2020 and Level 4 autonomy years ago. Both timelines missed their targets. Investors are asking whether Optimus will follow the same pattern of delayed execution.
