Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin told developers in Buenos Aires on Tuesday that quantum computers will have the ability to break the cryptography holding Bitcoin and others as early as 2028.
Vitalik said “elliptic curves are going to die,” pointing straight at the math that secures wallets, signatures, and every transaction on today’s major blockchains. The concerns grew louder after Google announced a quantum breakthrough last month, following Microsoft’s move in February when it revealed a quantum‑enabling chip. Those jumps pushed quantum danger right into the center of the crypto conversation. The fear is that if hardware keeps moving at this speed, the encryption that protects every on‑chain wallet and every old signature could be exposed within a few years.
Researchers warn crypto could break before 2028
Quantum researcher Scott Aaronson said in a blog post that the “staggering rate of hardware progress” makes it a “live possibility” that a fault‑tolerant quantum machine running Shor’s algorithm could exist before the 2028 U.S. election.
Scott said Shor’s algorithm would break the encryption behind both Bitcoin and Ethereum. That means old keys, old signatures, and any untouched wallet would be open to attack once the machines reach scale.
Crypto investor Nic Carter reacted on X, saying the “magnitude of the threat that quantum poses to all blockchains” gave him “an urgent sensation like I have to act on it now with as much intensity as I can muster.”
Risk expert Alex Pruden, the CEO of Project 11, also posted on X that “we don’t need to panic, but we need to get serious,” adding that “quantum computers at sufficient scale will break crypto at the most fundamental level imaginable.”
Alex said the problem is not theoretical. It’s mechanical. Once the machines hit the right threshold, the math breaks.
Bitcoin developers are also being told that the window is closing. Théau Peronnin, the CEO of Alice & Bob, told Fortune at Web Summit in Lisbon that developers “should have a few good years ahead” but he “wouldn’t hold” his Bitcoin long‑term.
Théau said Bitcoin “needs to fork by 2030” to move to stronger protection, adding that quantum computers “will be ready to be a threat a bit later than that.” His warning pointed at a chain that still hasn’t decided how to handle a post‑quantum world.
Vitalik outlines Ethereum’s plan for quantum risk
Vitalik told developers that Ethereum could “ossify” different layers at different speeds. He said the consensus layer could freeze earlier while the Ethereum Virtual Machine stays flexible, or the opposite could happen.
He said, “it’s good to maintain some flexibility,” because Ethereum needs room to adjust while also keeping users safe.
He argued that innovation should move away from the base layer and into Layer 2 rollups, wallets, privacy tools, and user apps.
Layer 2s already handle most Ethereum activity, and moving more of it there frees Layer 1 for settlement and security. Vitalik said it is “healthy to move attention out of L1 and into the surrounding ecosystem.”
But he also said the shift comes with a cost. Ethereum’s early days had a “spirit of exploration,” but that feeling faded as the ecosystem took rough detours with memecoins and grew more rigid with institutional money entering the space.
Vitalik said too many teams now try to “be a fast follower and copy what’s already working,” which “harms the imagination of the space.”
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