Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $91,700, navigating a week characterized by elevated volatility, liquidation events, and market uncertainty.
Traders and analysts are observing whether BTC can sustain support near this level before testing higher resistance zones.
Current Market Conditions and Short-Term Pressure
BTC recently dipped briefly below $90,000, marking a seven-month low, before recovering modestly. Analysts attribute the pressure to a combination of retail selling, leveraged trading liquidations, and institutional positioning, reflecting the broader uncertainty in crypto markets.
A rapid, decisive downturn toward $46,000 is viewed by the commentator as preferable to a gradual decline, suggesting it could trigger a sharper reset and potential rebound. Source: James Wynn via X
Some social media commentary has suggested extreme scenarios, such as a rapid drop to $46,000 followed by a recovery. It is important to note that such forecasts are highly speculative, based on individual perspectives, and have limited historical accuracy. Past liquidation-driven predictions have occasionally materialized, but often only under very specific market conditions, making them more illustrative than predictive.
Short-Term Sell-Off and Liquidation Data
On-chain and exchange data provide insight into recent market behavior:
Exchange Liquidations: Over $160 million in long positions were liquidated across major exchanges, indicating short-term selling pressure.
Loss-Making BTC Supply: Glassnode data show that roughly 65,200 BTC—valued at approximately $6.08 billion—was sold at a loss within 24 hours. This metric helps gauge sell-side pressure from recent buyers.
Fear & Greed Index: Binance’s index has reached one of its lowest levels this year, signaling heightened retail market caution.
Whale accumulation is rising, with wallets holding 1,000+ BTC increasing 2.2% to 1,384—the highest level in four months, even as the market dips. Source: Crypto Uncle via X
While retail sentiment has been negative, wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC—commonly referred to as “whale” wallets—have increased to 1,384, a four-month high. These on-chain metrics suggest accumulation tendencies among larger holders, though wallet categorization is heuristic and does not directly confirm institutional activity. Historically, similar patterns have preceded medium-term recoveries, but this is not guaranteed.
Technical Analysis: Resistance and Support.
From a technical standpoint, BTC is encountering resistance at clustered exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the 4-hour chart:
20 EMA: ~$93,400
50 EMA: ~$96,500
100 EMA: ~$100,000
Clustered EMAs often act as zones where price momentum slows, as buyers and sellers converge. A sustained close above these levels on meaningful volume is typically required to confirm a breakout.
The daily relative strength index (RSI) has dipped below 30, entering oversold territory. Historically, oversold RSI levels can signal potential relief rallies, but false signals are common, especially during volatile markets. If BTC fails to maintain support near $90,000, the next potential support could be near $85,000. Conversely, reclaiming ~$94,000 could set up a test of $97,000 resistance, with a longer-term scenario extending toward $109,000—conditional on sustained bullish momentum.
Understanding Key Levels
For context, traders often use critical support and resistance levels to assess risk:
Entry Level: ~$91,600
Target Level: ~$109,000 (conditional scenario)
Stop-Loss Level: ~$79,800
These levels provide reference points for evaluating potential price movement, but traders should combine them with volume confirmation, trend analysis, and risk management strategies rather than treating them as guaranteed outcomes. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, recently acting as resistance, is commonly used to identify potential reversal zones.
This signal outlines a medium-risk long trade setup on Bitcoin, detailing entry, target, and stop-loss levels over a 12-hour timeframe, with disclosure of an affiliate partnership with Trade Nation. Source: EliteTradingSignals on TradingView
Market Sentiment: Divergence Between Retail and Larger HoldersA divergence exists between retail and whale activity: retail investors have been selling amid volatility, whereas large wallets show signs of accumulation. While these trends can hint at possible medium-term recovery, they are probabilistic indicators rather than deterministic signals.
Outlook and Analytical Considerations
Bitcoin is currently balancing bearish momentum with underlying accumulation tendencies among large holders. The immediate challenge is maintaining support near $91K while testing resistance zones near the EMAs. Traders and investors should approach the market cautiously, considering:
Volatility Risks: High short-term swings can lead to rapid losses, particularly for leveraged positions.
Methodology Awareness: On-chain metrics, EMAs, RSI, and Fibonacci retracements offer insights but are not guarantees.
Historical Context: Similar volatility and liquidation events in 2021 and 2022 illustrate that rapid dips can precede both recoveries and further declines, highlighting the importance of risk management.
Bitcoin was trading at around 91,817.17, up 1.63% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
In summary, BTC’s path over the next week will likely depend on whether it can hold support and reclaim EMA clusters. While conditional scenarios point to potential rebounds, all predictions carry uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of evidence-based analysis and disciplined trading strategies.
