Bitcoin has been below its 365-day moving average at $102,000 since last Friday, igniting debate among analysts about a possible bear market. The Fear & Greed Index has tumbled to 10, matching panic levels last seen in early and mid-2022.
By Thursday, over $700 billion had vanished from the market in the past month. Despite heightened fear and key technical breakdowns, mixed signals from macro trends and whale activity keep experts split on crypto’s immediate direction.
Technical Breakdown Raises Bear Market Fears
Bitcoin’s second drop below $100,000 in one week triggered alarms. It now trades under the 365-day moving average, a level that marked regime changes in the 2018 and 2021 bear markets. Detailed analysis shows this indicator effectively separates bullish and bearish phases across cycles.
The decline is not limited to price. On-chain data shows Bitcoin below the realized price for coins held 6–12 months at $94,600. This is the cost basis for so-called “bull-cycle conviction buyers.” If the price stays below this level, many investors will incur losses, which can increase selling pressure.
Bitcoin perpetual futures saw their largest weekly jump in open interest since April, surging over $3.3 billion. Many traders had set limit orders to buy the dip as Bitcoin fell below $98,000. However, prices continued dropping, triggering these orders and creating leveraged exposure in a declining market.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has heightened concern with his technical analysis. Brandt highlighted a sweeping reversal on November 11, followed by eight days of lower highs and a broadening top pattern. His downside projections are $81,000 and $58,000.
Yet, some experts say these conditions do not confirm a full-scale bear market. They call the current phase a “mid-cycle breakdown,” a risky period that needs more signals to confirm a trend. Three triggers would confirm a bear market:
Bitcoin remaining below the 365-day MA for four to six weeks,
long-term holders selling over 1 million BTC within 60 days,
a negative market-wide MACD.
Whale Accumulation Challenges Bearish Signals
Though fear metrics signal capitulation, on-chain data shows a rise in Bitcoin whale accumulation. Addresses holding 1,000 or more BTC have increased, even as prices drop. This suggests institutional and major investors see the downturn as a buying opportunity, not the start of a prolonged bear market.
The strongest claim against a bear market comes from macro fundamentals. Global liquidity stands at a record high, with over 80% of central banks easing policy. This broad monetary loosening has historically benefited risk assets, with cryptocurrencies susceptible to liquidity waves.
Macro analysts highlight that central banks are cutting rates and adding liquidity. Data from the Bank for International Settlements confirms the trend: US dollar credit grew by 6%, and euro credit by 13% year-over-year through Q2 2025. Expanding credit often fuels asset price gains.
Over 80% of global central banks are in easing mode as of 2024, creating favorable liquidity conditions for risk assets. Source: MilkRoadMacro
Historical data support this thesis. When liquidity rises, risk assets often rally. Cryptocurrencies can benefit most from being frontier assets. The current setting recalls pre-bull markets, when brief corrections happened as the money supply expanded. Unless this liquidity trend reverses—which central banks do not suggest—crypto remains structurally supported.
Still, the IMF’s April 2025 Global Financial Stability Report flagged stretched valuations in technology assets. The OECD forecasts global GDP growth to slow to 2.9% next year from 3.3% in 2024. These could limit how much liquidity can boost prices. As a result, analysts weigh abundant liquidity against economic headwinds in today’s market.
