September’s long-delayed US labor report delivered stronger-than-expected job creation and a higher unemployment rate, offering mixed signals for investors.
However, with October data missing entirely, markets suggest that the report is already too stale to move Bitcoin or risk assets in a meaningful way.
A Stronger NFP Print, but a Higher Jobless Rate
The US Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 in September, more than double the consensus forecast of around 50,000.
Jobless claims for the week ending November 15 came in at 220,000, below the expected 227,000, reinforcing the view that the employment backdrop remains resilient despite high borrowing costs.
However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, slightly above expectations for 4.3%. This unusual combination, stronger hiring but rising unemployment, prompted confusion across analyst circles.
The Labor Department also issued two-month net payroll revisions, subtracting 33,000 hires, with one prior month revised down to -4,000, marking a notable adjustment.
Delayed Data Creates a Blind Spot
The bigger issue, analysts say, is not the numbers themselves but the absence of newer data. Due to reporting disruptions, October employment figures will not be released, leaving financial markets with a significant information gap.
“The numbers are already very outdated and provide little insight into how the labor market currently looks… The news can be seen as positive for now and offers room for the Fed to continue lowering interest rates, assuming inflation allows for it,” wrote Crypto researchers at Bitcoin2Go, summarizing the market mood.
In a year defined by rate cuts, liquidity concerns, and conflicting macro signals, missing an entire month of federal labor data complicates an already uncertain outlook. For traders accustomed to real-time clarity, especially in the crypto market, this gap matters.
Indeed, the Bitcoin price remained flat, trading at $91,983, around the same level as when the market opened on Thursday.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Why Crypto Markets Barely Reacted and What This Means for Investors
Normally, a stronger-than-expected NFP print combined with rising unemployment creates a tug-of-war narrative that can move risk assets. This time, the reaction was muted. Bitcoin barely budged, hovering near its weekly average despite the headline surprise.
There are three reasons:
1. The data is old
With no October release, September figures are functionally obsolete. Markets now consider November inflation readings far more relevant.
2. The macro trend has not changed
Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2025, provided inflation continues to decelerate. One stale NFP report does not alter this trajectory.
3. Liquidity flows dominate crypto more than jobs data
Bitcoin’s movements this quarter have been driven mainly by ETF inflows, exchange liquidity shifts, and positioning around year-end, not labor statistics.
For now, markets interpret the September report as slightly bullish because of solid hiring signals economic resilience, while higher unemployment gives the Fed cover to ease policy further.
However, the absence of October data prevents analysts from confirming whether the labor market is cooling or stabilizing.
The next major macro catalysts are the November inflation print, the December FOMC meeting, and upcoming Treasury refinancing announcements, all of which will carry significantly more weight than today’s outdated labor report.
