The new Trump sanctions on Russian oil kicked in on Friday, and the fallout began instantly, as almost 48 million barrels of crude from Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC were left wandering across oceans with no confirmed buyers, according to Bloomberg.
Tankers carrying Urals and ESPO grades moved without clear destinations from the Baltic Sea to the South China Sea, while traders watched to see who would dare accept the cargo under the new restrictions from the White House.
This move came one month after President Donald Trump blacklisted the two major Russian producers in his effort to increase pressure on the Kremlin during the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The U.S. Treasury said earlier this week that the sanctions were already delivering results, pointing to weaker demand and heavier discounts on Russia’s main crude grades. Now that the rules are active, those barrels are stuck at sea as buyers hesitate.
Indian refiners started rushing to secure replacement supply from the Middle East once the limits kicked in, and they booked tankers at a pace that pushed freight rates for that route to levels not seen in nearly five years. Traders are now watching closely to see who will step forward for the Russian barrels already in motion.
India moves for new barrels as tankers wander without buyers
Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV, said, “Russian export flows are holding up, but it’s not finding its way through to their destinations yet,” adding that if the holdup continues, supply may start falling, which would worry markets. His point lines up with what is currently happening across the shipping lanes.
Kpler’s tracking shows close to 48 million barrels from Rosneft and Lukoil either loading or already underway. About 50 ships are pointed toward China and India, while others drift without a listed destination after middlemen pulled back to avoid being caught in any sanction triggers.
Russia is still pushing barrels out at sea as fast as it can. Bloomberg’s vessel‑tracking numbers showed seaborne shipments staying around 3.4 million barrels a day, showing how intent Moscow is on keeping exports flowing despite the tighter rules.
Prices for key crude grades have not reacted much so far, but that does not solve the problem for the tankers stuck without buyers. China and India have taken most of Russia’s crude since the 2022 invasion, and both continue to have strong ties with Moscow. But the threat of secondary sanctions is now making them more careful.
Adam Lanning, senior tanker market analyst at SSY, said, “It’s painful, but it’s painful only for three or four months,” adding that markets usually find ways to keep barrels moving. His view is already showing in how some tankers are adjusting their routes.
Tankers turn around as sanction pressure reshapes trade paths
Two ships carrying Urals crude that had reversed course earlier this month have now resumed their trips toward India, even though they are unlikely to reach buyers before the wind‑down period expires on Nov. 21.
The Spirit 2, loaded with 730,000 barrels from Rosneft, turned back after passing the Suez Canal in early November and waited in the area before setting its course south again over the weekend.
The Furia, another Aframax with almost 730,000 barrels of Urals, made a sharp U‑turn in the Baltic Sea in late October and has already crossed the Suez on its way to India.
Other tankers show how wide the impact has spread. In Russia’s Far East, the Cindy took nearly 770,000 barrels of ESPO from Kozmino in early November with no stated destination. It is now sailing toward open waters near Singapore and Malaysia, regions known for ship‑to‑ship transfers used to hide cargo origins.
And the Fortis, carrying 720,000 barrels of Urals from Rosneft, is now heading toward Yeosu, South Korea after conducting a rare transfer in waters near India. Fortis was originally expected to land in Ningbo, China, until its destination changed.
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