Bitcoin's recent drop below $100,000 has brought renewed attention to the $95,000 on-chain HODL wall—a crucial threshold where long-term holders (LTHs) have accumulated a large portion of the supply. The steep decline, which
resulted in $655 million worth of long positions being liquidated
within a single day, has revealed vulnerabilities in the market, as spot ETFs have posted a net outflow of $961 million since early November
based on available data
. This price movement has turned a slow downward trend into a sharper sell-off, pushing the market to test on-chain support levels below $100,000.
Coinbase's figures underscore the magnitude of this move:
Bitcoin
dropped from a high of $103,988 to $95,900,
putting it just 2% above
the $95,000 HODL wall. On-chain metrics indicate that about 65% of the USD invested in Bitcoin is still above this mark, with short-term holders (STHs) owning coins purchased at $95,000 or more,
as well as 30% of LTH holdings
within the same price range. This cluster of value is similar to the heavy accumulation seen in late 2021, when both experienced and new investors overlapped, leading to a drawn-out resolution. Unlike the speculative surges of 2017 and 2021, the current setup points to a more measured unwinding.
The breakdown of the $112,000 STH cost basis has left recent entrants at a loss, while LTHs still have a layered cost structure just below the recent peaks. The unwinding of futures and ETF withdrawals have further weakened support between $106,000 and $118,000,
an area of resistance identified by Glassnode
. What sets this cycle apart is the nature of the selling: in 2025, unrealized losses make up only half the market cap compared to January 2022, even as Bitcoin approaches the HODL wall.
Glassnode's data indicates
STHs have been in the red since Oactober, with their profit-to-loss ratio falling below 0.21 near $98,000, showing that over 80% of recent sales have been at a loss.
The $95,000 mark remains a key battleground. If long-term holders stand their ground, the HODL wall could absorb forced sales from STHs and the derivatives market. On the other hand,
a decisive drop beneath $95,000 would clear
the way for a move down to $85,000—the "tariff tantrum" low—before reaching the True Market Mean at $82,000. Unlike the rapid and relentless fall from $45,000 to $36,000 in 2022, a decline from $95,000 to the $80,000 range in 2025 would likely be shorter and less intense, with demand from the 2024 range still nearby.
Short-term market conditions remain unstable. ETF redemptions have replaced the steady inflows seen over the past year, perpetual funding rates and open interest have dropped since the leverage flush in October, and
options traders are now paying
an 11% implied volatility premium for puts compared to calls. The near-term direction depends on LTHs, who hold most of the supply above $95,000. If they remain steadfast, the wall could hold, giving the market time to recover demand; if not, a quick slide toward $82,000 could follow.
