Crypto traders waiting for a repeat of the legendary 2021 altcoin boom might be waiting for something that no longer exists — at least not in the same form.
Key Takeaways:
Wedson says a 2021-style altcoin boom won’t happen without major capital returning to crypto.
He expects future altcoin seasons to be small, theme-based surges rather than full-market explosions.
Bitcoin outperforming most assets pushed the index back to “Bitcoin season,” despite pockets of altcoin strength.
Market analyst Joao Wedson believes the industry has changed so much over the last three years that the definition of “altcoin season” itself needs to be rewritten.
Capital Drives Altcoin Seasons – And Capital Has Moved Elsewhere
Wedson argues that the heartbeat of every altcoin supercycle has always been the same: huge inflows of fresh money. During 2020–2022, crypto and Web3 startups absorbed billions in funding, and that deep liquidity spilled into the broader market. Without that level of investment, he says, a synchronized altcoin surge is mathematically much harder.
The Weekly and Daily Altcoin Season Index show that we're once again sitting in BTC Season territory. Still, a few of the Top 20 altcoins are refusing to drop as hard as Bitcoin — enough to make the index start pushing upward.
In general, from 2022 to 2025 we only saw tiny,… pic.twitter.com/0Cu16vsdu5
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) November 22, 2025
Today, major funding isn’t going into Layer-1 chains or DeFi projects — it’s flowing into artificial intelligence. The shift isn’t ideological; it’s financial. Investors are chasing the sector with the highest expected return, and right now that isn’t crypto.
Why the Index Alone Doesn’t Tell the Full Story
Even though the Altcoin Season Index has fallen back into “Bitcoin season” territory, Wedson cautions against treating the chart like an on/off switch. He notes that several top-20 coins actually dropped less than Bitcoin during the sell-off — something that typically precedes a rise in altcoin strength rather than weakness.
From his perspective, Bitcoin pulling the market down isn’t surprising. What really matters is which assets recover faster — not which assets fall.
Forget the 2017 and 2021 Playbook
The explosive altcoin waves of the past were driven by liquidity tidal waves — and without comparable inflows, the next cycle will look fundamentally different. Wedson expects sector-focused breakouts, not a scenario where “everything pumps at once.”
He points to recent years as proof: meme tokens had their moment, AI crypto took off next, then RWA tokens, gaming, and other niche rotations. Those weren’t accidents — they were previews of how altcoin cycles behave when money is selective instead of overflowing.
The Next Altcoin Season Will Be Narrow, Not Universal
Wedson isn’t calling for the end of altcoin investing — only the end of unrealistic expectations. Without major institutions returning to crypto in force, traders should expect isolated narrative-driven surges, not a market-wide explosion like 2021.
For investors waiting for “the” altcoin season, the real question may not be when it happens — but whether they’re prepared for the kind of altcoin season the market now produces instead of the kind they remember.
