XRP is at a crucial juncture, testing the monthly 20-day Exponential Moving Average (20EMA), while on-chain data shows 1.8 billion XRP previously acquired near $1.75.
This combination may define near-term market behavior, though outcomes remain conditional on broader market conditions.
As of November 22, 2025, XRP trades around $1.95, recovering slightly from recent lows near $1.83. Technical and on-chain signals suggest that historical accumulation zones, combined with institutional inflows, could support a rebound—provided macro conditions remain stable.
XRP Approaches Key Technical Support Amid Volatility
According to TradingView analyst Ali Martinez, XRP’s proximity to the monthly 20EMA is significant: historically, this level has acted as a pivot point determining whether longer-term bullish structures remain intact.
Critical area for XRP bulls: if the Monthly 20EMA holds, price may test $2.20–$2.30 resistance, though oversold RSI signals are unreliable, requiring tight stops and precise entries. Source: BorrowedClothes on TradingView
“Previous rebounds around the 20EMA have often preceded multi-week consolidation phases or short-term recoveries,” Martinez noted, highlighting that technical support remains a critical consideration in a volatile crypto market.
This scenario underscores that while the XRP price is holding above this moving average, traders should monitor the level closely, as a confirmed breach could signal further retracements.
1.8 Billion XRP at $1.75 Creates Strong Support
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode indicates that approximately 1.8 billion XRP were previously acquired near $1.75, forming a concentrated support cluster. Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmap uses aggregated transaction data across major exchanges and wallets tagged as long-term holders.
1.8 billion XRP acquired near $1.75 forms a significant support zone. Source: Ali Martinez via X
“This accumulation zone may act as a stabilizing layer if selling pressure intensifies,” Martinez explained, adding that similar clusters historically have served as rebound points during market corrections.
As of November 22, 2025, XRP trades near $1.95, following a week in which the total cryptocurrency market lost more than $1.28 trillion in capitalization (CoinMarketCap data). Historical comparisons suggest that while such high-volume acquisition zones often provide support, they do not guarantee rebounds—broader market conditions must also be favorable.
Network Activity Shows Signs of Fatigue
Data from Glassnode (7-day moving average of daily active addresses) reports a roughly 91% decline in network participation since mid-June, from over 577,000 to just above 50,000 addresses. New address creation has similarly slowed, dropping by more than 50% in recent weeks.
As of Nov 21, XRP spot ETFs saw $11.89 in daily inflows, totaling $422.66, with $384.44 in assets—about 0.33% of XRP’s market cap. Source: Sosovalue
Reduced on-chain activity aligns with lower speculative engagement, potentially increasing short-term price volatility. Whale distribution data from CryptoQuant shows wallets holding 1–10 million XRP sold an estimated 1.58 billion tokens over the past two months, including 190 million in 48 hours, applying measurable sell-side pressure.
Institutional inflows, however, remain resilient. Canary Capital’s XRP ETF (XRPC) recorded net inflows of $292.6 million since mid-November, while Bitwise’s XRP product added another $105 million (per ETF provider filings). Martinez notes that “steady ETF demand may partially offset retail liquidity declines, creating a mixed flow environment that could stabilize prices.”
TD Sequential Buy Signal Suggests Potential Momentum Shift
XRP’s daily chart recently triggered a TD Sequential “9” buy signal, a technical pattern developed by Tom DeMark. This indicator historically identifies potential trend exhaustion after extended declines, though it is not predictive.
The TD Sequential indicator has triggered a buy signal for XRP, with the previous two occurrences producing 14% and 18% rebounds. Source: Ali Martinez via X
Martinez observed, “The last two TD ‘9’ signals led to 14% and 18% rebounds, but outcomes are always conditional on concurrent market dynamics.” XRP dipped to roughly $1.85 before rebounding toward $1.95, leaving a long lower wick indicative of buyer interest at these levels. RSI and other momentum oscillators remain oversold across multiple timeframes, suggesting caution in algorithm-driven markets.
Scenario-Based Outlook: Monthly 20EMA Support
Maintaining a position above the monthly 20EMA is a critical condition for traders assessing medium-term XRP trajectories. Technical models suggest that if this support holds, XRP could potentially approach the $2.20–$2.30 range, where the monthly 10EMA aligns as the next resistance level.
Traders may consider the following scenario-based strategies:
Maintain tight, protective stop-losses
Focus on precision entries near key support levels
Wait for trend confirmation before assuming a reversal
The interplay of historical accumulation at $1.75, TD Sequential signals, and institutional inflows could support a multi-week relief rally—conditional on stable macro and crypto market sentiment.
Historical Context Supports Cautious Optimism
XRP has previously demonstrated similar behavior around EMAs and accumulation clusters. During the 2023 correction, a concentrated on-chain support zone near $0.65 preceded a 30% rebound over three weeks.
Conversely, TD Sequential signals failed to reverse trends in late 2022 amid extreme market downturns, highlighting the need for scenario-based interpretation rather than certainty.
Final Thoughts
XRP’s near-term trajectory depends on maintaining support at the monthly 20 EMA and the broader market environment.
XRP was trading at around 1.91, down 1.14% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin
A sustained hold could allow a technical rebound toward mid-$2 levels, while a breach below $1.75 could trigger deeper retracements. Scenario-based analysis, which combines technical, on-chain, and institutional signals, provides traders with a structured framework for navigating potential volatility.
