The XRP price is up about 2.3% in the past 24 hours and has trimmed its weekly losses to under 7%. The bounce looks healthy at first glance, especially after the bottoming signs we tracked earlier this week. But the structure behind this bounce hasn’t improved enough.

A critical risk is back on the table — a setup that could push the XRP price down by over 13%.

Momentum Improves, but Volume and Supply Pressure Compete

XRP’s short-term strength starts with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV shows whether real volume is entering or leaving the market. XRP’s OBV has finally moved above its short trend line, hinting that buyers are returning.

But this move carries a warning. OBV tried the same breakout on November 18 and failed. That failure triggered a 19% drop between November 18 and November 21.

The latest push above the line is only marginal, not a clean breakout. If it slips again, the same pattern could repeat.

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XRP Faces Trendline Risk: TradingView

There is also supply pressure overhead. The cost-basis heatmap shows a dense cluster between $2.16 and $2.17, where roughly 1.36 billion XRP sits, worth almost $2.86 billion. These holders sit near breakeven and often sell into small recoveries.

Strong Supply Clusters Sit Overhead: Glassnode

If OBV weakens while the XRP price faces this supply zone, the bounce can fade quickly.

Still, OBV moving higher is one of the few positives for now. A decisive break above 6.93 billion on the OBV chart would confirm stronger volume support and improve XRP’s odds of clearing resistance.

XRP Price Action: The Unlucky 13% Risk Still Hangs Over XRP

Even with a mild recovery, the XRP price still trades under the major moving averages. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 200-day EMA are both angled down, and the 100-day is now about to cross below the 200-day.

An exponential moving average gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster than a simple moving average. When the 100-day EMA drops under the 200-day EMA, a bearish crossover forms. And it can amplify the downside.

This is the core risk for XRP right now. If the crossover completes, the XRP price could slide toward $1.81, which is the same bottoming zone the recent candles have pointed to. That would be a 13% dip from the current levels. If sellers stay active while the crossover forms, XRP could easily revisit that level. Even the previous OBV breakout failure amplifies the risk of a similar XRP price drop.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

There is one way out, though!

A clean daily close above $2.25 would weaken the crossover setup. That move would also show buyers breaking through the $2.16–$2.17 supply wall, where about 1.36 billion XRP sit. Holding above $2.25 would allow the 100-day EMA to curl upward again and reduce the crossover impact.

Until that happens, the bearish EMA structure keeps the 13% XRP price downside threat alive, even with OBV turning up.