Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has stated that Bitcoin should have found its cycle bottom around $80,000, following last week’s sharp decline.

Hayes predicts $80k support will hold

In his latest commentary on X, Hayes argued that the recent fall to around $80,500 represents a key support.

He attributed this confidence to changing US liquidity conditions, noting that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its current phase of quantitative tightening (QT) next month. Hayes summarized his outlook:

“Minor improvements in $ liq.”

He anticipates that the Fed’s balance sheet will stop shrinking after this week, which could increase liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin. Hayes added that bank lending also picked up in November, reinforcing his belief that Bitcoin’s recovery is imminent.

Volatile market expectations for Fed policy

Market sentiment around the Federal Reserve’s next moves remains highly volatile.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicates a 79% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, a sharp rise from 42% a week earlier.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian remarked on the unpredictability:

“This kind of wild volatility is the opposite of the ‘predictability and stability’ the Fed usually strives for…”

Bitcoin’s response to US liquidity trends

Hayes has consistently argued that increased US liquidity, especially through renewed quantitative easing (QE), will benefit Bitcoin.

He suggested that after another potential dip below $90,000, Bitcoin should maintain the $80,000 support level. For broader context on price drawdowns, see the bitcoin chart showing drawdowns from all time highs.

Macro factors and the path forward

As the Fed signals a possible policy shift, the Bitcoin market’s response will be closely watched.

Hayes concluded that a return to money printing and a correction in AI tech stocks could further support Bitcoin’s next leg higher.