Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, said on the 24th that global market liquidity is beginning to show signs of improvement. According to Hayes, the main driver behind this shift is the Federal Reserve’s decision to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, roughly earlier than markets anticipated.
minor improvements in $ liq:
– fed qt stops dec 1, this wed will prob be last fall in b/s
– us banks increased lending in novwe chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k's but i think $80k holds. might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 24, 2025
Hayes noted that U.S. banks expanded lending throughout November, signaling that financial institutions are once again preparing to extend credit—an important indication that liquidity conditions are turning more favorable.
Bitcoin Outlook: Temporary Drop but Strong Support
Regarding the crypto market, Hayes expects Bitcoin (BTC) to remain below USD 90,000, with a possible short-term decline into the low USD 80,000 range. However, he believes the USD 80,000 level will serve as a strong support, characterizing the move not as the start of a bearish trend but as a healthy market correction.
At the October 29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve officially confirmed that it will stop shrinking its securities holdings on December 1, ending QT after reducing the balance sheet by more than USD 2 trillion.
The Fed also cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, setting a new target range of 3.75%–4.00% in an attempt to ease tightening liquidity conditions.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Treasury Department’s reluctance to increase long-term bond issuance contributed to market strains, intensifying pressure on liquidity.
Outflows Continue, but Liquidity Trend Turning Positive
Despite improving macro conditions, the digital asset market is still showing volatility. Data reveals that crypto investment funds saw USD 1.9 billion in outflows over the past week. Even so, Hayes believes liquidity is gradually recovering and that Bitcoin will likely benefit first from the improving environment.
He added that stronger liquidity could eventually lift Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies, with assets like Solana potentially gaining as investor risk appetite increases.
