Bitcoin is holding firm near $87,000 after a five-day rally restored some confidence following a bruising 30% slide from October’s highs.
But analysts are cautioning that the next major breakout may not come until 2026, even as macroeconomic conditions improve and Wall Street’s appetite for riskier assets is growing.
“Bitcoin has been struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level for far longer than most market participants expected,” Koinly CEO Robin Singh told DL News.
He said the market is drifting into its typical “Christmas hibernation,” reducing the odds of explosive price action before year-end.
The call comes as crypto’s total market value climbs back to $3.1 trillion, lifted by a broad rebound across global stock markets and improving expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December after hints from multiple officials.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $129 million in inflows on Tuesday, according to DefiLlama data. Even so, investors have pulled almost $3.6 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in November. That makes the this the worst month for sell-offs since February.
Artificial intelligence and tech stocks, a general proxy for broader risk appetite, have also shrugged off losses from earlier this week and largely rebounded.
Singh said a decisive reclaim of $90,000 in December would materially improve sentiment among traders, and inoculate 2026 of early “crypto winter anxieties.” But historically, December has rarely delivered big moves.
“Bitcoin’s average December return has been under 5% since 2013,” he said.
Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis is also bearish on the month of December. “The previously consensus view of a year-end ‘santa rally’ has been priced out by the markets,” he said on X.
Deribit said on X that traders’ positioning in the options market suggest they expect Bitcoin to reach up to $118,000, but “not explode past it.”
Macro flips green
Bitcoin’s stabilisation comes as macro tailwinds are also emerging as the economy digests a wave of delayed data following the US federal government shutdown.
Last week, Fed governor Christopher Waller said cuts could come in the “near term,” while New York Fed President John Williams echoed that downside risks to employment justify easing policy soon.
And investors are noticing the Fed’s new signals. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns roughly 83% odds to a December interest rate cut of 0.25%, up sharply from last week. Bettors on Polymarket are even more optimistic, at 84%.
The next Federal Open Market Committee is set for December 9 and 10.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is up 0.4% over the past 24 hours, trading at $87,100.
Ethereum is up 1.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $2,900.
