Copper’s price surged made a brand new all-time high of $11,581.50 in Shanghai early Friday after a rare bullish call from Citigroup.
Citi analysts led by Max Layton said in their Friday note that the team sees an average of $13,000 in the second quarter because metal is being pulled into the U.S. and leaving other regions short.
Traders are currently keeping a close eye on trade risks as more shipments moved toward American ports ahead of possible import tariffs, according to Jane Street.
Mercuria moves metal out of LME warehouses
The strain in the system showed up in warehouse activity. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. ordered about $500 million worth of copper to be taken out of London Metal Exchange storage, which is the biggest cancellation of stock in more than ten years, but also does match the tightening outlook laid out by Citi.
Max said the analysts had “conviction in copper upside through 2026 supported by multiple bullish catalysts, including an incrementally constructive fundamental and macro backdrop.”
Meanwhile, Macquarie Group analysts led by Peter Taylor said in a Thursday note that the metal could still hit fresh highs but added that prices above $11,000 a ton are not sustainable because the physical market is not tight enough.
They pointed to the surge in exchange inventories, which surged above 656,000 tons, the highest since 2018, with nearly two-thirds held in Comex warehouses in the U.S. The call lined up with comments from Goldman Sachs, which said earlier this week it does not see a real shortage until 2029.
Traders track moves in gold, oil, and Fed expectations
While copper held strong, gold is struggling, as traders locked in profits and waited for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.Gold futures slipped by 0.3% to $4,220.10 per ounce and spot gold eased 0.3% to $4,190.13.
The World Gold Council said it expects prices to rise between 15% and 30% in 2026. A Reuters poll of 39 analysts and traders had placed the median 2025 forecast at $3,400 per troy ounce, up from $3,220 in July, with expectations for an average of $4,275 in 2026.
Energy markets inched higher. Brent crude traded 0.3% higher at $62.85 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate rose 0.4% to $59.16. Traders reacted to new Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil sites, which raised concerns about supply at a time when peace talks stalled.
Anyway, rate expectations stayed central across all markets. The CME FedWatch tool showed traders fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut that would bring the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%, with another cut expected in December.
A separate Reuters poll that was taken between November 28 and December 4 found 82% of economists expecting the same 25-basis-point reduction at next week’s meeting. Cryptopolitan expects lower interest rates to help economic activity and raise oil demand.
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