A major liquidity shift and an unusually uncertain Federal Reserve setup now define the coming week for global crypto markets, according to reports from Binance Research and Nexo Dispatch
The reports state that the December 10 FOMC meeting sits at the center of near-term market direction, with policy signals expected to outweigh recent price volatility.
What Happened
Binance Research identified a “major liquidity inflection point,” noting that the Federal Reserve has formally halted Quantitative Tightening and resumed injections, helping Bitcoin reclaim $90,000 and strengthening expectations of a December rate cut.
The shift coincides with Treasury General Account drawdowns and renewed risk appetite across equities, creating what Binance describes as one of the strongest liquidity setups of the year.
Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev echoed the macro emphasis, saying Bitcoin is behaving like an asset “awaiting policy clarity” as traders position ahead of the delayed U.S. PCE report and next week’s rate decision.
He added that “expectations for a 25 bp Fed cut have solidified,” with markets now focused on how the central bank guides policy into early 2025.
Despite sharp drops earlier in the week following China’s strictest stablecoin ban since 2021 and the Bank of Japan’s unexpectedly hawkish tone, Binance Research reported that sentiment proved resilient as liquidity conditions improved.
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $94,000, closing the week up 1.3%, while Ethereum gained 5.6% , following the blockchain's Fusaka upgrade
The upgrade introduced Peer Data Availability Sampling, an efficiency improvement that Binance notes boosts Layer-2 data capacity eightfold without increasing hardware burdens, and reestablishes Layer-1 revenue capture via a reserve fee mechanism for Blobs.
Binance described this as a “major fundamental positive” explaining ETH’s outperformance and its climb to US$3,240.
Institutional drivers also strengthened.
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Binance highlighted Vanguard’s decision to open crypto ETF trading to its 50 million brokerage clients, calling it a potentially significant new capital pipeline.
For context, BlackRock saw $60–70 billion flow into its Bitcoin ETP during its first year, even a fraction of that would represent one of 2025’s largest new inflow sources.
Kalchev noted that ETF flows softened in the near term, with $194.6 million in outflows, but said exchange balances “continue to fall toward multi-year lows,” providing structural support.
He added that on-chain metrics “still point to an inflection rather than a confirmed cycle top.”
Why It Matters
Going forward, Binance Research expects a “hawkish cut,” with policymakers likely to temper easing expectations despite mounting bets on a December reduction.
The December 10 decision will be made in a data vacuum, as nonfarm payrolls arrive only after the meeting, raising the prospect of heightened volatility.
Both teams identified next week’s U.S. Employment Cost Index, jobless claims, and central bank actions in Japan and Australia as key indicators.
Broader geopolitical risks, including slow progress in U.S.–Russia negotiations and renewed tension around Venezuela, remain on the radar but secondary to monetary policy.
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