Bitcoin is making another attempt to break the downtrend that has kept the crypto king capped since late October. Price is hovering near $91,000 as investors watch a rare shift in market structure unfold.
For the first time in more than two and a half years, short-term holders have surpassed long-term holders in realized profits, creating both opportunities and risks for BTC.
Bitcoin Sees Some Shift
The MVRV Long/Short Difference highlights a notable change in Bitcoin’s profit distribution. A positive reading usually signals long-term holders hold more unrealized gains, while a negative value indicates short-term holders are ahead.
In Bitcoin’s case, the difference has dipped into negative territory for the first time since March 2023. This marks 30 months since short-term holders last led in profits.
Such dominance raises concerns because short-term holders tend to sell aggressively when volatility increases. Their profit-taking behavior could add pressure on BTC’s price if the broader market weakens, especially during attempts to break the downtrend.
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Bitcoin MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment
Despite this shift, Bitcoin’s broader momentum shows encouraging signs. Exchange net position change data confirms rising outflows across major platforms, signaling a shift in investor accumulation. BTC leaving exchanges is often treated as a bullish indicator, reflecting confidence in long-term appreciation.
This trend suggests that many traders view the $90,000 range as a reasonable bottom zone and are preparing for a potential recovery. Sustained outflows support price stability and strengthen the probability of BTC breaking above immediate resistance levels.
Bitcoin Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode
BTC Price Is Trying Its Best
Bitcoin is trading at $91,330 at the time of writing, positioned just below the $91,521 resistance. Reclaiming this level and flipping it into support is essential for BTC to challenge the month-and-a-half-long downtrend. Without this breakout, upside momentum remains limited.
If short-term holders refrain from selling and accumulation continues, Bitcoin could climb toward $95,000. A successful break above that level may send BTC toward $98,000, signaling renewed bullish strength.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, if short-term holders start taking profits, the pressure could push BTC back toward $86,822. A drop to this level would prevent any meaningful breakout and invalidate the bullish setup, keeping Bitcoin confined within its multiweek downtrend.
