Circle (CRCL), the issuer of USD Coin (USDC), is well positioned to weather potential U.S. interest rate cuts thanks to accelerating demand for regulated stablecoins, according to Wall Street brokerage Bernstein.
As per the Block, in a note to clients on Oct. 14, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said that while lower interest rates could compress Circle’s revenue, expanding stablecoin adoption and strong operating leverage should help the company maintain solid growth.
The analysts forecast that USDC’s market share could climb from 29% today to 33% by the end of 2027.
Bernstein also estimated that every 25-basis-point rate cut could lower Circle’s 2027 revenue by roughly 9% and EBITDA by 11%. Even when the rates go below 2%, Circle is projected to generate $668 million in EBITDA, representing a robust 33% compound annual growth rate from 2024 through 2027.
The firm reaffirmed its "outperform" rating on Circle stock, maintaining a $230 price target.
At the time of writing, CRCL was trading 0.21% lower at $137.18 while as per Kraken, USDC was trading at $0.9998.
Circle logo (Credit: Getty Images)
The report credited Circle’s compliance-first strategy, deep liquidity network and multi-chain integrations as key structural advantages.
USDC currently operates across 28 blockchains, supported by partnerships with major exchanges including Coinbase, Binance and OKX. Bernstein estimated that Circle had a 120% year-over-year surge, processing more than $3 trillion in USDC transactions in the first half of 2025.
