Bitcoin is nearing a decisive breaking point as long-term holders tighten supply while short-term investors show growing signs of stress, according to new analyses from Bitfinex Alpha and Glassnode.
Together, the reports frame a market where structural accumulation is colliding with increasingly fragile speculative demand.
Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has reached one of its strongest positions of the cycle, describing the cohort as exhibiting “exceptionally strong conviction” despite recent volatility.
The report states that long-term holders “continue to absorb supply at a consistent pace,” reducing the liquid bitcoin available on exchanges.
Bitfinex adds that this behavior “resembles prior periods that preceded supply squeezes,” hinting at the potential for tightening liquidity to act as a tailwind if demand stabilizes.
Glassnode highlights a different pressure point: short-term holders, whose cost basis is hovering near spot price.
“Short-term holders are once again showing growing unrealized losses,” the report notes, adding that this group historically becomes the marginal seller during market weakness.
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Glassnode warns that when spot trades beneath short-term holder realized price, it has “often coincided with periods of heightened vulnerability.”
The tension between these two groups, what Bitfinex calls “structural holders” and what Glassnode identifies as “price-sensitive participants” now defines the state of the market.
Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin is entering a phase where “either weak-hand capitulation or a renewed demand impulse will determine direction.”
Bitfinex similarly argues that the current structure is approaching an inflection point, writing that “a break in either direction would likely be amplified by the thin liquidity environment,” especially as exchange balances continue to fall.
Both analyses align on the forward-looking risk: Bitcoin is transitioning into a phase where sustained accumulation by long-term holders could spark a supply shock, but only if short-term holders do not capitulate first.
The reports emphasize that Bitcoin’s next major move will be shaped by which group gives way under mounting macro and liquidity pressures.
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