The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, but analysts say don’t expect Bitcoin to skyrocket right after the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting.
Why? Because traders have already priced in the cut, leaving analysts to expect the price to keep trembling around $90,000. For now.
“Following the FOMC meeting, I expect Bitcoin to hover around this level without a decisive break,” Aurelie Barthere, Nansen’s principal research analyst, told DL News. “All eyes are on Bitcoin’s $91,000 resistance level.”
Full steam ahead
Instead, analysts are looking for the beginning of 2026 for more price action.
Barthere said she is expecting US President Donald Trump to nominate Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council chief, as the next Fed chair after Jerome Powell steps down next year.
“It’s notable that this decision, originally expected this year, has been delayed,” Barthere said.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, told DL News that President Donald Trump is “expected to announce his pick in early 2026.”
“Senate approval follows, with the new chair taking over in May 2026 after Powell,” Magadini said. “This will be another big driver of monetary policy and market sentiment.”
If Hassett takes over the Fed reigns, markets will all be dealing with a Fed boss seen as more politically aligned with a president than any in modern history.
He is one of the few Fed contenders who has zealously argued for faster and bigger cuts to interest rates, which Trump has demanded for months.
Lower interest rates have historically lifted risk-on assets crypto by reducing the appeal of risk-free yield investments like bonds.
Cut this week?
The FOMC is widely expected to slash rates this week. The CME FedWatch tool gives a 87% probability for a 0.25% cut on Wednesday. Bettors on Polymarket push that to 95%.
Bitcoin’s price has basically been trading flat over the past week. The sideways price action reflects broader uncertainty across global markets as investors brace for a Fed meeting seen to set the macroeconomic backdrop going into 2026.
US stock futures were flat Tuesday after the S&P 500’s cautious Monday session, Bloomberg data shows, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures, a benchmark for broader risk appetite, also stalled.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw another $89 million in outflows on Monday, bringing December’s losses to $177 million, DefiLlama data shows.
Barthere said the Fed is currently stuck dealing with stale labour data after the long US government shutdown. “With a two-month lag in labour-market data, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance.”
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is down 1.8% over the past 24 hours, trading at $90,300.
Ethereum is down 1.2% over the past 24 hours trading at $3,120.
