Bernstein maintains its $1 million Bitcoin price forecast for 2033 but pushed back near-term targets after the cryptocurrency's recent correction. The Wall Street research firm now expects BTC to reach $150,000 in 2026 and potentially peak at $200,000 in 2027, delaying earlier projections by roughly two years. The long-term target remains intact.
What Happened: Forecast Revision
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, shared excerpts from Bernstein's latest note. The firm's analysts stated Bitcoin's cycle has broken its traditional four-year pattern.
They now describe it as an "elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling."
Despite Bitcoin's roughly 30% decline, spot ETFs recorded less than 5% net outflows.
This data drove the timeline revision. Bernstein originally projected a cycle peak near $200,000 in 2025 when it first published the $1 million thesis alongside its MicroStrategy coverage in mid-2024.
Bitcoin topped out in the mid-$120,000 range rather than the forecast $200,000 level for 2025.
The subsequent correction prompted analysts to extend their timeline. The firm's analysts wrote: 'We are moving our 2026E Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000. Our long term 2033E Bitcoin price target remains ~$1,000,000.'
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Why It Matters: Institutional Capital
The minimal ETF outflows during a significant correction signal institutional capital behaves differently than retail investors in previous cycles. Bernstein interprets the 5% outflow figure as evidence that ETF-mediated investment pools provide price support that traditional four-year halving cycles didn't account for. The firm believes this "sticky" capital has fundamentally altered Bitcoin's market structure.
The revised framework treats earlier targets as rescheduled rather than abandoned.
Bernstein has accurately identified adoption drivers like ETF demand and supply constraints but proved too aggressive on timing.
The new projections acknowledge that institutional capital flows operate on a longer timeline than the halving-driven cycles that previously governed price action.
BTC traded at $92,405 at press time.
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