KEY TAKEAWAYS
Raydium (RAY) is breaking down from an ascending parallel channel.
The price has completed a long-term five-wave upward movement.
After a 66% decline since the all-time high, where will RAY find support?
Raydium was one of the biggest risers of the current market cycle, benefitting from the interest in Solana and its meme coins. The price increased by 5,800% and reached a high of $8.67 in January.
However, the tides have shifted violently, and the price has fallen 66% since the high. With a recent breakdown from long-term support, RAY has sparked concern that its bullish cycle is over
If this is the case, where will the price find support next? Let’s find out.
RAY Price Completes Cycle
The weekly time frame RAY chart shows that the price has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) starting in December 2022. Wave three extended, and the sub-wave count is shown in black. In its entirety, the Raydium price appreciated over 5,800%.
The increase since October 2023 is contained inside an ascending parallel channel. The top of wave five was at $8.70, coinciding with the middle of this channel. This is a likely level for the end of wave five.
The Raydium price has fallen by 66% since its all-time high, culminating with a low of $2.81 on Feb. 25, a new yearly low that caused a breakdown from the long-term channel. This is a decisive sign that Raydium’s bullish cycle has ended.
If the decline continues, the next closest support area will be $1.70.
Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has generated a double bearish divergence (orange, dashed) and has fallen below 50. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has made a bearish cross and is declining.
Therefore, the weekly time frame suggests the RAY trend is bearish, and new lows will follow.
Where Will RAY Find Support?
The daily time frame RAY chart offers no hope for a bullish trend reversal. On Feb. 24, the RAY price broke below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and horizontal support level of $4.05.
This confirmed that the bear market has started since the price often bounces at the 0.618 level if the decline is corrective.
An ascending support trend line at $2.20 could provide temporary relief. However, technical indicators do not show any bullish signs. On the contrary, the RSI and MACD are declining and have not generated any bullish divergences.
So, the RAY price will likely continue falling until it reaches the long-term horizontal support area at $1.80.
Despite its decline, Raydium is still the leading decentralized exchange on Solana, with roughly $180 million in revenue in 2024.
Raydium has been in the news regarding comparisons to Pumpfun, who has allegedly decided to stop deploying on Raydium and use their own Automated Market Maker (AMM). Over the past two weeks, Pumpfun accounted for less than 35% of the volume in Raydium.
Bearish 2025
Raydium’s price has fallen over 66% since its all-time high and shows no signs of slowing down.
The downward movement could continue until at least $1.80, and the RAY price is likely mired in a lengthy downward trend.
