As 2025 draws to a close, Barclays has struck a cautious tone on the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in its latest annual forecast. The bank warns that without a major narrative or catalyst to reignite investor enthusiasm in 2026, digital assets could enter a prolonged period of stagnation marked by declining trading volumes, fading retail participation, and increasing pressure on crypto trading platforms such as Coinbase.
?JUST IN: ?? Barclays says 2026 could be a “down year” for crypto unless major catalysts emerge. pic.twitter.com/EB2hNe49FV
— DustyBC Crypto (@TheDustyBC) December 15, 2025
According to Barclays, the crypto market currently lacks a clear “ignition point.” In the near term, analysts expect prices to remain range-bound while liquidity continues to dry up. The era of rapid retail-driven turnover that defined previous bull markets has largely faded, and this is weighing heavily on spot trading volumes, which is one of the most critical revenue sources for exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood.
Crypto Markets Seen as Overly Dependent on Policy-Driven Catalysts
Barclays analysts go further, suggesting that fiscal year 2026 could mark another year of declining spot trading activity, with few visible factors capable of reversing the trend.
Historically, crypto markets have been highly event-driven. Shifts in regulation, product launches, and political developments have often sparked short-term trading surges. Barclays points to past examples such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and post-election optimism in the United States, both of which temporarily boosted market activity. However, the bank stresses that these catalysts tend to produce short-lived rallies rather than sustained structural growth.
One potential variable that could reshape expectations is the proposed CLARITY Act in the United States. The legislation aims to clarify whether digital assets should be classified as commodities or securities, and to define regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC. While Barclays does not expect the bill to directly drive prices higher, it believes regulatory clarity could lay the groundwork for future tokenized products and compliant issuance.
Coinbase Faces Margin Pressure Despite Strategic Expansion
At the company level, Coinbase remains a key focus for Barclays. While the exchange has been expanding into derivatives, tokenized equities, and new growth avenues through acquisitions, the bank sees near-term profitability under pressure due to weak spot trading activity and rising operating costs.
Reflecting this cautious stance, Barclays has set a USD 291 price target for Coinbase, based on conservative assumptions about revenue growth and market recovery.
Tokenization Is the Future—But Not a 2026 Fix
Barclays acknowledges that tokenization is a long-term growth trend, as evidenced by investments from major players such as BlackRock and Robinhood. However, the bank cautions investors against expecting meaningful revenue or profit contributions in 2026, noting that tokenization remains in its early stages and faces adoption and regulatory hurdles.
The report also addresses shifting political narratives in the United States that are perceived as more crypto-friendly. Barclays argues that much of this optimism has already been priced into the market, while meaningful regulatory reform still faces lengthy legislative and approval processes.
2026: A Year of Consolidation and Patience for Crypto
Overall, Barclays characterizes 2026 as a year of adjustment and waiting for the crypto industry. With retail enthusiasm fading and a shortage of compelling narratives, companies are expected to prioritize compliance, efficiency, and long-term positioning over aggressive growth.
When these strategic investments will translate into renewed momentum remains uncertain and likely further off than many investors hope.
