BTC is entering a period of shifting ownership, where large-scale holders are either supporting or shedding the coin. Miners and whales offer long-term holding, while ETFs are now the origin of selling pressure.
BTC is going through another shift in large-scale holder balances. Some categories of wallets emerge as dedicated holders with long-term confidence, while others are turning into net sellers.
BTC traded at $86.401.82, trading in a climate of extreme fear. The recent market downturn has broken below several support levels. At the current price range, BTC is just above the $84,000 cost basis of ETF buyers, which may lead to further selling from mainstream investors.
At the same time, a new cohort of accumulation wallets is building up BTC reserves. Miners have also retained their reserves at relatively unchanged levels. BTC is still stored as a long-term reserve, and whales are buying at a lower range after realizing profits near peak valuations.
Institutions sell, BTC natives hold
BTC is still in correction territory, down nearly 7% in the past week. These market conditions caused diverse flows. Strategy once again bought more than 10,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s company acquired 640 BTC on average each day in 2025 to date, though the metric is down from 785 BTC daily in August.
Under these conditions, analysts are turning to miner and whale retention, seeking signs of long-term confidence.
BTC miner reserves remain relatively unchanged at 1.89M tokens. Miners keep producing blocks even during distress conditions, with limited selling on Binance. Most miners can afford to hold due to their extremely low cost basis from previous cycles.
BTC addresses with over 1,000 coins remain relatively stable, with only around 60 wallets divesting in the past quarter. Another 3,000 wallets with over 100 BTC were created in the past quarter, showing renewed accumulation by sharks.
Despite the recent selling, there is demand to absorb BTC almost immediately, due to the growing scarcity.
Why did the BTC rally stall?
The 2025 cycle had much more favorable conditions for BTC. Yet the leading coin entered another long-term drawdown, with 72 days of losses since the most recent all-time high.
Long-term BTC analyst PlanB returned with an opinion on the current price weakness. The analyst, known for the stock-to-flow model, believes current sellers are trying to front-run another bear market similar to the 2021-2022 crash.
The current BTC market still relies on less visible accumulation and spot holders, confident in more price records in the coming years. Yet BTC is still looking for a local bottom, while traders estimate whether the previous four-year cycles are still valid.
Based on the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, BTC is currently trading in similar conditions to the 2023 bear market. Short-term bearish predictions see BTC slide to $70,000 or even $40,000 before eventually returning with another bull market.
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