K33 says bitcoin’s prolonged sell-side pressure from long-term holders is nearing saturation after a multi-year distribution phase.

What K33 says is happening

In a Dec. 16 report, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said supply held in unspent transaction outputs older than two years has been declining since 2024.

K33 estimates about 1.6 million BTC, worth roughly $138 billion at current prices, has been “reactivated” over that period.

The firm argued the scale suggests meaningful distribution rather than purely technical movements.

Why supply is being reactivated

Lunde said some reactivations may be explained by events like Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust converting into an ETF, wallet consolidation, and security-related address upgrades.

However, he said those factors do not fully explain the magnitude of supply returning to circulation.

K33 described 2024 and 2025 as the second and third-largest years for long-term supply reactivation in bitcoin’s history, behind only 2017.

Transactions and liquidity backdrop

K33 pointed to large transactions including an 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale completed by Galaxy in July, plus other whale sales during 2025.

The firm said the current wave reflects direct selling into deeper liquidity from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury demand.

What K33 expects next

Lunde said:

“With 20% of BTC’s supply reactivated over the past two years, we expect onchain sell-side pressure to approach saturation.”

He predicted bitcoin’s “two-year supply” will end its downtrend and close 2026 above its current level of about 12.16 million BTC.

K33 also flagged potential quarter-end rebalancing effects, noting bitcoin has historically tended to move opposite the prior quarter early in a new quarter.