Crypto markets may be heading into a phase that looks nothing like the cycles investors have grown used to.
Instead of sharp peaks followed by brutal collapses, the next few years could be defined by extended upside, institutional dominance, and slower-moving trends that stretch well beyond traditional timeline
Key Takeaways
Bitwise expects the next crypto cycle to break from the traditional four-year pattern
The firm sees Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana reaching new highs as institutional demand grows
Regulatory clarity and ETF adoption are viewed as major drivers of longer-lasting upsides.
That is the broad picture emerging from Bitwise’s forward-looking outlook, which frames 2026 not as a late-cycle cooldown year, but as a potential continuation point for major crypto assets.
A Market No Longer Ruled by the Four-Year Clock
For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s price action has been interpreted through a predictable lens: halving-driven rallies, followed by steep drawdowns and long recoveries. Bitwise now argues that this framework is losing relevance.
According to the firm’s analysis, several forces are weakening the classic boom-and-bust dynamic. Interest rate cycles appear less hostile than in previous periods, institutional participation is rising steadily rather than opportunistically, and crypto infrastructure is becoming embedded within traditional finance rather than sitting outside it.
Under those conditions, Bitcoin reaching new highs in 2026 would represent structural continuity, not a delayed echo of past cycles.
Institutions Replace Speculation as the Primary Driver
One of the clearest shifts highlighted by Bitwise is who now sets marginal prices. Rather than retail traders and leverage-driven momentum, demand is increasingly coming from regulated products and large balance sheets.
Major financial institutions are expanding crypto access through brokerage platforms, while spot ETFs continue to accumulate assets. At the same time, on-chain development is accelerating, reinforcing long-term use cases instead of short-term hype.
This combination changes market behavior. Capital moves more slowly, exits are less reflexive, and volatility compresses over time.
Ethereum and Solana as Infrastructure, Not Trades
Bitwise’s optimism extends beyond Bitcoin, but the logic differs. For Ethereum and Solana, the firm’s outlook hinges on regulation rather than monetary cycles.
Stablecoins and tokenized assets are expected to expand significantly over the coming years, and Bitwise views ETH and SOL as the primary settlement layers for that growth. If U.S. legislation provides clearer rules for crypto markets, capital that has remained on the sidelines could begin flowing into smart contract platforms at scale.
In that environment, Ethereum and Solana are framed less as speculative altcoins and more as core financial infrastructure – a distinction that supports the possibility of new valuation highs.
ETFs Create Persistent Supply Pressure
Another structural change lies in supply absorption. Bitwise expects exchange-traded funds to become dominant buyers of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, potentially purchasing more tokens annually than networks produce.
If ETF demand continues to scale, issuance mechanics that once capped upside may instead amplify it. This dynamic also reduces the relevance of short-term supply shocks, reinforcing longer trend durations.
Volatility Falls as Crypto Matures
Bitwise also points to a quiet but significant trend: Bitcoin’s volatility has been declining for years. In some periods, it has already traded with less volatility than major technology stocks.
This shift reflects a broader derisking process. As investor bases diversify and allocation replaces speculation, price swings become less extreme. If that trend persists, crypto assets may begin behaving more like macro instruments than high-beta trades.
Beyond prices, Bitwise expects structural changes across the ecosystem. Crypto-related equities may outperform traditional tech stocks, prediction markets could expand rapidly, and institutional capital – including from elite endowments – may enter the space more openly.
The firm also anticipates a surge in crypto-linked ETFs, growth in on-chain capital vaults, and a weakening correlation between Bitcoin and equities, reinforcing crypto’s evolution into a distinct asset class.
Outlook
Bitwise’s long-term thesis is not about a single rally or a single catalyst. It is about a market that has outgrown its early patterns.
If regulation, institutional access, and infrastructure continue to develop together, the next set of all-time highs may arrive later than expected – but could prove more durable than any seen before.
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