As capital continues to flood into artificial intelligence, questions are starting to emerge about what happens if that enthusiasm fades.

One concern increasingly shared among crypto executives is that Bitcoin, despite years of maturation, may still not be fully insulated from a broader tech-led market reversal.

Key Takeaways

• A potential slowdown in AI-driven investment could still spill over into Bitcoin due to lingering market correlations

• Bitcoin appears more resilient than in past cycles, making extreme drawdowns less likely

• Tokenization and real economic use cases are seen as key drivers of crypto’s next growth phase

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino recently highlighted this risk, arguing that Bitcoin remains partially tied to global capital flows rather than operating as a fully independent asset. In a scenario where overinvestment in AI infrastructure triggers a pullback in equities, he believes Bitcoin could still experience spillover effects – even if the damage is far less severe than in past cycles.

Why an AI Slowdown Matters for Crypto

The scale of spending tied to AI has few historical parallels. Massive investments in data centers, power generation, and specialized hardware have driven valuations higher across parts of the tech sector. If expectations shift or returns disappoint, the resulting repricing could hit risk assets broadly.

Bitcoin, while increasingly held as a long-term asset, has not completely escaped this environment. Ardoino’s view suggests that a correction driven by macro forces – rather than crypto-specific failures – remains a plausible stress test over the next two years.

Bitcoin, Markets and Tokenisation, with @paoloardoino – #BC21 https://t.co/2nZUN8KmQr

— Bitfinex Securities (@BFXSecurities) December 18, 2025

Bitcoin’s Downside May Be More Limited Than Before

Despite that risk, Ardoino does not expect a repeat of the brutal drawdowns seen in earlier cycles. In his assessment, the profile of Bitcoin holders has changed materially. Greater participation from institutions, pension funds, and even governments has introduced longer investment horizons and reduced the likelihood of panic-driven collapses.

This does not mean Bitcoin is immune to volatility, but it does suggest that extreme crashes are becoming less structurally likely as ownership broadens and market infrastructure improves.

Growth Beyond Price: Tokenization Takes Center Stage

Looking beyond Bitcoin’s price behavior, Ardoino sees the next major expansion coming from tokenized real-world assets. He expects securities, commodities, and other traditional instruments to increasingly move on-chain, driven by efficiency gains rather than speculation.

This shift, in his view, represents a more durable form of adoption, one that ties crypto infrastructure directly to real economic activity rather than trading cycles alone.

A Stark Divide Between Regions

Ardoino’s outlook is not uniformly optimistic. He remains deeply skeptical about Europe’s ability to lead in the next phase of crypto innovation, citing regulatory approaches that he believes prioritize control over experimentation. That stance has already influenced Tether’s strategic decisions, including its refusal to align with certain European frameworks.

In contrast, he sees more momentum in jurisdictions that allow faster iteration and clearer operational paths for crypto-native companies.

Not All Bitcoin Exposure Is Created Equal

Another area where Ardoino draws a clear line is in corporate crypto strategies. He is critical of companies whose sole purpose is to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, arguing that long-term value comes from combining treasury exposure with real operational businesses.

In his view, Bitcoin should support a business model, not replace one.

A Measured View of the Next Cycle

Taken together, Ardoino’s perspective reflects a market that is neither fragile nor fully decoupled. Bitcoin is stronger than it was in past cycles, but it still exists within a global financial system shaped by technology trends, capital allocation, and regulatory choices.

If an AI-driven correction arrives, it may not redefine Bitcoin’s future – but it could still test how independent the asset has truly become.