Bitcoin rose about 2.5% on Friday, targeting $88,000 after the Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to around 0.75%, the country’s highest level in roughly three decades.

Hayes ties BOJ move to weaker yen

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, framed the decision as supportive for risk assets despite the headline “rate hike” narrative.

Hayes wrote on X:

“Don’t fight the BOJ: -ve real rates is the explicit policy.”

He added:

“$JPY to 200, and $BTC to a milly.”

Market argues hikes may be limited

Temple 8 Research said markets may be overestimating how far the BOJ can tighten, citing political and fiscal constraints.

In a blog post last week, the firm argued rates may not rise again before 2027, pointing to the government’s latest $140 billion stimulus package and the cost of servicing new debt.

The post stated:

“If rates go to 1.5%, interest payments on this new debt explode.”

ETF cost basis becomes key support level

Bitcoin’s move higher came as US stock index futures also rose, with Nasdaq 100 futures up about 1.5%.

BTC/USD previously dipped to $84,390 amid volatility following surprise US inflation data.

Onchain analytics platform Checkonchain said bitcoin is “hammering out a bottom,” and highlighted $81,000 as a key level because it represents the cost basis for US spot bitcoin ETFs.

Checkonchain added that the market has not yet seen a “true capitulation event.”