Bitcoin may be approaching one of its most pivotal turning points in years. A leading valuation metric, the BTC Yardstick, currently reads -1.6 standard deviations below its long-term mean, signaling the pioneer crypto’s deepest undervaluation since the 2022 bear market low.
Historically, this level has coincided with major cycle bottoms, including 2011, 2017, 2020, and 2022.
BTC Yardstick Shows Strongest Undervaluation in Years
The Yardstick measures Bitcoin’s market price against the cost and power required to secure its network. This includes mining infrastructure and operational expenditures.
“BTC Yardstick at –1.6σ = Bitcoin is insanely undervalued. Other occurrences: 2022 bear market low, 2020 COVID crash bottom, 2017 pre-blow-off base, 2011 bear market bottom…All occurrences coincided with strong accumulation…Bottom was in as well!” wrote analyst Gert van Lagen in a post.
BTC Yardstick indicator at major market bottoms, attributed to Gert van Lagen
Whale Accumulation Hits Highest Levels in Over a Decade
Meanwhile, the undervaluation signal coincides with unprecedented accumulation activity. Over the past 30 days, BTC whales and large holders purchased 269,822 BTC, worth approximately $23.3 billion. According to Glassnode data, this is the largest monthly accumulation since 2011.
“Largest accumulation in 13 years. The 4-year cycle is dead; the Supercycle is here,” wrote crypto analyst Kyle Chasse.
The bulk of this buying occurred in wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This suggests that both high-net-worth individuals and smaller institutions are positioning for a potential market rebound.
Market Sentiment After Bitcoin’s Minor Correction As Frustration Breeds Opportunity
Despite the record accumulation and undervaluation, Bitcoin’s price has faced downward pressure this year. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, recent losses are modest relative to prior gains.
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 contributed to previous surges, driving the asset to its then-record highs near $69,000 in March 2024.
Overall, Bitcoin returned 155.42% in 2023 and 121.05% in 2024 before experiencing an 7% decline year-to-date. This suggests the current dip may be a natural correction after exceptional gains.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView
Analysts note that market rallies often begin not when hope is high, but when investors are weary.
“We are not scared anymore, we are tired. Tired of waiting. Tired of believing. But listen, market rallies don’t start when hope is high; it’s when people are tired, frustrated, and ready to give up,” wrote analyst Ash Crypto.
The convergence of historically low valuation, record whale accumulation, and declining leverage suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing another cyclical inflection point.
While timing remains uncertain, these indicators highlight a unique window of potential opportunity for long-term investors.
