Arthur Hayes just laid out his Bitcoin roadmap for the next three months — and it ends at $200,000.

The angel investor and Maelstrom fund CIO published a new essay on Friday, arguing that the Federal Reserve is printing money through a new programme, dubbed Reserve Management Purchases.

And once investors realise its effects resemble those of quantitative easing, Bitcoin will explode higher.

“As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” Hayes wrote.

His timeline is auspicious — Bitcoin should rally hard in the first three months of 2026.

Hayes’ argument posits that the central bank will buy $40 billion of government debt each month.

While the Fed frames RMP as a new technical tool, Hayes argues it creates the same new money as the Fed’s old quantitative easing programme.

Investors, however, haven’t caught on.

Once they realise the Fed has “thinly disguised” and is actually printing massive amounts of new money, Bitcoin will surge to $200,000 by March, Hayes said.

Of late, the Fed has been slashing interest rates while calling for caution. In mid December, the US central bank cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

But committee members were torn, with two voting to keep rates as they were. Another advocated for looser monetary policy.

‘This ain’t QE’

In December, the Fed began buying $40 billion of short-term government debt each month through RMP.

For the Fed, this isn’t economic stimulus — just a boring technical adjustment to keep the banking system running smoothly.

Unlike the Fed’s infamous money printing programme from 2008 to 2020 that had end dates and limits, this new programme can run forever with no ceiling.

“This ain’t QE,” Hayes wrote. “This is money printer go fucking brrrrr!”

Here’s how it works in plain English, according to Hayes. The Fed creates new money out of thin air and uses it to buy government debt.

Then, the people who sold that debt now have fresh cash to either buy more government debt or lend it to hedge funds that buy government debt.

Either way, that new money ends up paying for government spending.

When the government spends that money, it flows into the economy — driving up prices of everything from stocks to Bitcoin.

Three-month roadmap

Hayes expects Bitcoin to stay stuck between $80,000 and $100,000 through the rest of the year because investors still believe the Fed’s story that this isn’t money printing.

Once 2026 rolls in, investors will figure out the truth, and Bitcoin “will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” Hayes wrote.

The peak comes in March, which is when expectations for Fed money printing hit their highest, Hayes said.

After March, Bitcoin will pull back but stay “well above $124,000.”