Bitcoin (BTC) approached $90,000 during Asia trading hours Monday as derivatives data suggested tactical upside potential despite mixed historical evidence for year-end rallies.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro showed BTC/USD hitting an intraday high of $89,850, up 6.5% from a local low of $84,400.
Analyst AlphaBTC said Bitcoin appears positioned for a "Santa Rally" with potential gains toward the yearly open at $93,300.
Captain Faibik identified a bullish megaphone pattern with a measured target of $120,000, representing a 34% rally from current levels.
What Happened
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted Bitcoin's regime score at 16.3% places the cryptocurrency in the upper neutral zone, historically a bullish signal.
The long/short liquidation dominance oscillator dropped to -11%, signaling a surge in forced short position closures while the 30-day moving average remains positive at 10%.
This divergence indicates short liquidations creating "tactical fuel for upside."
However, analyst Ardi warned that tracking the Santa Rally window (December 24-January 2) over five years shows "diminishing returns and actual sell pressure."
Bitcoin posted -7.9% returns during this period in 2021, a post-halving year comparable to 2025's cycle position.
Glassnode's cost basis distribution heatmap shows immediate support at $84,000-$85,600, where investors acquired approximately 976,000 BTC.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades emphasized $84,000 "remains a key area to defend for the bulls on the high timeframe."
Read also: Metaplanet Approves Dividend Shares to Fund $2.7B Bitcoin Treasury Growth
Why It Matters
The $84,000 level represents the last major support before retesting April lows, which would break the current high-timeframe market structure.
Bitcoin successfully held above this psychological level since retesting it November 21.
Historical data presents conflicting signals, with Bitcoin closing positive in six of the last eight Decembers but showing negative median returns when November closes down.
Recent market conditions show Bitcoin ETFs recording $634 million in outflows during early December amid rising unemployment data.
Prediction market platform Myriad shows Santa Rally odds below 4% as participants lose confidence in year-end gains.
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