VanEck said a recent pullback in bitcoin mining activity could be flashing a bullish contrarian signal for the bitcoin price.
Hashrate drop and forward returns
In its “Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck” report, VanEck said bitcoin has historically been more likely to post positive 90-day returns when the network’s hashrate is shrinking.
VanEck wrote that since 2014, 90-day forward returns were positive 65% of the time during hashrate contraction, versus 54% when hashrate was growing.
The firm stated:
“Some empirical evidence suggests drops in hashrate can be bullish for long-term holders.”
VanEck described the relationship as a “contrarian signal” linked to miner capitulation.
Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell about 4% in the month through Dec. 15, VanEck said, marking the sharpest decline since April 2024.
Pressure on mining economics
VanEck said mining profitability has worsened alongside bitcoin’s price weakness.
The report estimated breakeven electricity costs for a mid-generation Antminer S19 XP fell from about $0.12 per kWh in late 2024 to roughly $0.077 by mid-December 2025.
Treasuries buying the dip
VanEck said longer-term institutional buyers have been absorbing supply.
From mid-November to mid-December, digital asset treasuries bought roughly 42,000 BTC, lifting aggregate holdings to about 1.09 million BTC, according to the report.
VanEck added:
“Going forward, we believe many DATs’ strategies will be to move away from common stock issuance and instead finance BTC purchases with proceeds from preference share sales.”
