A potential initial public offering by crypto exchange Kraken in 2026 is emerging as a possible catalyst for renewed capital inflows from traditional finance, even as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum following a sharp market correction late this year.
Industry voices remain divided on whether the current cycle still has room to run — or whether a deeper cooldown lies ahead.
Bitcoin reached a record high above $126,000 in early October, but the rally was short-lived. A massive liquidation event worth roughly $19 billion hit the crypto market days later, sending prices lower.
Key takeaways
Kraken’s potential IPO could attract fresh capital from traditional financial markets.
Bitcoin remains well below its October all-time high after a major liquidation event.
Some analysts see the bull market as ongoing, while others expect a downturn in 2026.
Institutional positioning suggests caution heading into the new year.
IPO Hopes and Bull Market Optimism
Despite recent weakness, Dan Tapiero, founder and chief executive of 50T Funds, argues that Bitcoin’s bull market is far from over. In his view, the current phase still represents the middle of a longer expansion, rather than the end.
Tapiero believes that Kraken’s IPO — alongside a growing wave of mergers and acquisitions — could act as a bridge between crypto markets and traditional finance. Such events, he says, have the potential to unlock fresh pools of institutional capital that have so far remained on the sidelines.
Kraken announced in November that it had raised $800 million in funding, valuing the exchange at $20 billion. Reports indicate the company filed confidential paperwork for a U.S. IPO earlier in the month, adding to expectations that a public listing could arrive next year.
A More Cautious Outlook for 2026
Not everyone shares Tapiero’s optimism. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity Investments, expects Bitcoin to face a more challenging environment in 2026.
Timmer has suggested that Bitcoin may enter a down year consistent with previous market cycles, potentially finding a local bottom between $65,000 and $75,000. He described 2026 as a possible “off year” for Bitcoin, noting that past bear phases have often lasted around twelve months.
Smart Money Signals Near-Term Caution
Positioning data points to continued short-term uncertainty. Traders tracked as “smart money” on Nansen have largely positioned for downside across major cryptocurrencies.
According to Nansen, these high-performing traders are net short on most top assets, with notable exceptions including Avalanche and the PUMP token associated with the Pump.fun memecoin launchpad. The positioning suggests expectations of further volatility rather than an immediate rebound.
Taken together, the outlook for 2026 remains finely balanced. A high-profile IPO like Kraken’s could help reignite institutional interest, but near-term price action and cautious positioning show that confidence has yet to fully return. Whether fresh TradFi capital is enough to extend the cycle may depend less on hype — and more on liquidity, macro conditions, and execution in the months ahead.
