Bitcoin is trading sideways near $88,000, with market sentiment turning more cautious after the recent rally. Despite the consolidation, institutional optimism remains strong. Citigroup (Citi) released a new outlook on Wednesday, raising its 12-month base-case price target for Bitcoin to $143,000, while outlining a bullish scenario that could see BTC reach as high as $189,000.

LATEST: ? Citi analysts put Bitcoin's 12-month price base case at $143,000, driven by anticipated ETF interest and regulatory clarity, with a bullish scenario of $189,000 and a bearish one of $78,500. pic.twitter.com/jAukEDkXQe

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Rather than attempting to pinpoint exact price levels, Citi’s report aims to reframe how investors assess the next phase of the market cycle. The analysis highlights which structural drivers are gaining importance and are most likely to shape Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.

Citi’s Framework: ETF Demand and U.S. Legislation Take Center Stage

Citi identifies two primary catalysts driving its revised outlook. The first is a renewed inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could unlock fresh institutional capital after a period of cooling demand. The second is progress on U.S. digital asset legislation, where clearer regulatory responsibilities could lower barriers for large financial institutions to increase exposure.

According to the report, Bitcoin is likely to trade within the $80,000 to $90,000 range around year-end. Citi also highlights $70,000 as a critical technical and psychological support level, noting that it represents the launch point of the previous rally. A sustained break below that level could amplify downside pressure through deteriorating investor confidence.

Three Scenarios Outline Bitcoin’s Potential Path

Citi’s outlook presents a three-scenario framework for Bitcoin’s next major move:

• Base Case – $143,000: Driven by ETF inflows and improving risk-asset sentiment, with spillover effects from broader financial markets.

• Bear Case – $78,500: Tied to macroeconomic slowdown or recession risks. Even in this scenario, Citi believes downside remains relatively contained.

• Bull Case – $189,000: Assumes broad-based demand expansion, with more long-term capital and major institutions formally adding Bitcoin to strategic allocations, creating a more durable and sustained buying structure.

While Bitcoin remains range-bound in the short term, Citi’s revised projections suggest that institutional narratives around BTC adoption, regulation, and capital flows continue to strengthen beneath the surface.