Bitcoin is moving sideways, but the tension underneath the surface is building. Price action has compressed into a tight range just as one of the largest options expiries of the year arrives, forcing traders to confront whether the market is preparing for resolution or simply extending its stalemate.
With more than $23 billion in Bitcoin options expiring, the lack of direction is misleading. This is not a relaxed market – it is one waiting for confirmation. A correction that already did most of its damage.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is consolidating as $23.6B in options expire, creating near-term tension.
Heavy selling from October and November has largely been absorbed.
The $85K level has emerged as a key support zone.
A sustained recovery depends on post-expiry momentum and volume returning.
The most violent phase of Bitcoin’s decline is already behind it. The sharp breakdown earlier in the quarter triggered widespread liquidations, flushed excess leverage, and reset positioning across derivatives markets. That shock altered behavior long before price finally stabilized.
Since then, selling pressure has faded gradually rather than reversing aggressively. Instead of panic, the market shifted into caution. Liquidity thinned, rallies were sold into quickly, and confidence remained absent even as downside momentum weakened.
This transition explains why Bitcoin stopped falling without immediately rebounding.
Why price stabilized but failed to rally
By late November, forced selling had largely disappeared. Short-term holders were shaken out, and liquidation-driven moves became rare. Under normal conditions, this would often mark the start of a recovery. That recovery never came.
Capital rotated elsewhere, particularly into gold, leaving Bitcoin in a holding pattern. The result was stabilization without conviction – a market that absorbed selling pressure but lacked a catalyst to attract fresh demand.
Technical structure quietly improves
While momentum remains muted, market structure has improved beneath the surface. Bitcoin has reclaimed levels above a declining trendline that previously capped price, a signal that downside pressure is weakening.
The $85,000 area has emerged as a key reference zone. Multiple tests of this region have attracted buyers, reinforcing it as near-term support. At the same time, upside attempts have stalled in the low-$90,000s, reflecting hesitation rather than outright rejection.
Momentum indicators echo this ambiguity. Daily RSI has begun to stabilize after months of weakness, and analysts are starting to note early divergence signals forming beneath price.
Bitcoin versus gold sends a longer-term signal
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted an important relative signal: Bitcoin’s RSI against gold on the weekly timeframe has slipped below historically extreme levels. In previous cycles, similar conditions preceded periods where Bitcoin began to outperform after prolonged underperformance.
The markets are getting closer and closer.
The RSI of BTCUSD/GOLD on the weekly timeframe is<30 and getting lower by the day.
On the daily timeframe, a strong bullish divergence on the RSI has been build up, for the first time since the entire correction.
That's a strong… pic.twitter.com/YkZlC5J33G
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 26, 2025
On shorter timeframes, bullish divergence has started to appear on the daily RSI, suggesting that selling pressure is losing effectiveness even if price has not yet responded.
These signals do not guarantee an immediate breakout, but they often appear near transitional phases rather than trend peaks.
Thin liquidity distorts short-term moves
Seasonality is also playing a role. Year-end trading conditions tend to reduce volume across risk assets, increasing the likelihood of false signals. Breakouts fail more easily, pullbacks lack follow-through, and technical indicators become less reliable without participation.
In this environment, Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects positioning adjustments rather than decisive trend changes. Direction is more likely to emerge once liquidity normalizes.
Options expiry as a potential turning point
Large options expiries often act as market resets. As expiry-related hedging pressure clears, price discovery tends to improve. Analysts at 10x Research argue that once this distortion fades, Bitcoin may finally be able to express its underlying structure more clearly.
Bitcoin triggers a bullish breakout – if sustained, then a multi-week uptrend is in the cards.
Bitcoin has spent weeks drifting sideways, testing the patience of both bulls and bears, while the forces shaping its next move quietly evolve beneath the surface.
A rare convergence… pic.twitter.com/8t7az7HytJ
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) December 26, 2025
If support continues to hold and momentum indicators keep improving, the market could transition into a multi-week recovery phase. Failure to attract volume, however, would likely extend consolidation and frustration.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a state of suspended tension – no longer under heavy attack, but not yet trusted by the market.
