Bitcoin's (BTC) persistent underperformance against traditional assets is raising questions about whether this cycle differs fundamentally from past bull runs.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the current market setup closely resembles 2019, when Bitcoin peaked on apathy before actual liquidity materialized.
Gold recently surged past $4,400 per ounce while Bitcoin trades around $87,000, roughly 30% below its record highs.
Major equity indices have also outpaced Bitcoin, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting double-digit gains while BTC remains essentially flat for the year.
What Happened
Cowen told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin responds to actual liquidity conditions rather than market optimism alone.
While stocks and gold rally on expectations of future monetary easing, Bitcoin requires clearer macroeconomic catalysts before outperforming.
The analyst highlighted unusually low sentiment despite relatively high prices.
Traditional cycle peaks featured widespread retail enthusiasm and speculation.
This market has instead been marked by relative apathy.
Cowen addressed the four-year cycle debate, presenting data that broader market cycles still play significant roles.
He outlined how macro headwinds including labor market trends and restrictive financial conditions may weigh on Bitcoin through 2026.
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Why It Matters
The comparison to 2019 suggests Bitcoin may need an extended consolidation period before its next sustained rally.
In 2019, Bitcoin topped around $13,000 in June before entering a prolonged correction that lasted until the 2020 quantitative easing cycle began.
Current conditions mirror that pattern with quantitative tightening still in effect.
The interview emphasized process over price predictions, focusing on how investors should think about cycles and risk management.
Cowen also addressed altcoins, suggesting expectations for quick rotations may be misplaced without broader liquidity expansion.
The analysis contrasts with more bullish narratives that emerged following Bitcoin ETF launches and post-election rallies.
Short-term bounces remain possible, but sustained momentum may require actual policy shifts rather than anticipated ones.
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