Solana (SOL) traded near $123 Friday as the critical $120 support level faces repeated tests.
A breakdown below this threshold could trigger a steep decline to $75, according to cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Patel.
The token gained 1.4% over 24 hours despite broader weakness across major cryptocurrencies.
Solana's market capitalization stands at $69.7 billion with daily trading volume reaching $1.68 billion.
What Happened
Solana has defended the $120 zone since late November as sellers repeatedly tested this support.
Patel outlined a two-stage scenario on X: near-term downside to $75 if support breaks, followed by a climb toward $500.
The analyst emphasized markets rarely move in straight lines and questioned whether SOL must hit $75 before any rally toward higher targets.
Technical charts show a double-bottom formation near $121 to $122.
Price recently broke above a descending trendline from the latest peak, suggesting potential short-term strength.
The $125 to $126 range represents immediate resistance where previous rallies stalled.
Multiple technical indicators point to oversold conditions on shorter timeframes.
However, Solana remains below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages.
The 20-day EMA near $127.60 acts as the first major resistance barrier.
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Why It Matters
The $120 level has become a critical battleground determining Solana's near-term trajectory.
Repeated tests of support typically precede either a decisive breakdown or a strong bounce.
A close below $120 would invalidate the double-bottom pattern and likely accelerate selling pressure toward lower support zones.
Conversely, reclaiming $127 to $128 would neutralize recent weakness and reopen upside potential.
Despite price struggles, Solana's network fundamentals remain strong.
DEX spot volume on Solana more than doubled year-over-year to $343 billion in Q3 2025 from $159 billion in Q3 2024.
This disconnect between declining price and growing network activity suggests technical factors rather than fundamental deterioration drive current weakness.
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