Bitcoin’s Rally Fades Above $90K, Analysts Warn Leverage Buildup Contradicts Bottoming Pattern

Ethereum 2025-12-29 19:00

Bitcoin’s Rally Fades Above K, Analysts Warn Leverage Buildup Contradicts Bottoming Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back from early-session strength on Monday, reversing gains above $90,000 as broader crypto markets followed the retreat.

What Happened

The pullback mirrored weakness in U.S. equity futures, where Nasdaq 100 contracts traded roughly 0.5% lower, signaling a risk-off tone across markets.

After briefly breaching $90,000, Bitcoin fell under $88,000, according to CoinGecko data.

Major altcoins moved in lockstep: XRP, Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) all unwound their morning advances.

The move came alongside a modest cooling in leveraged positioning.

Global open interest in Bitcoin futures edged down from 540,000 BTC to about 533,000 BTC, Coinglass data show.

That shift suggests some traders trimmed exposure as prices faltered, though positioning remains elevated relative to earlier in the month.

Market-making firm Wintermute noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq tends to tighten during periods when tech stocks weaken,a dynamic that appears to be reasserting itself.

Still, derivatives specialists say the latest pullback did not resemble forced deleveraging.

Why It Matters

QCP Capital said trading volumes remain unusually thin due to holiday conditions, allowing spot flows to exert outsize influence.

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“With less than $40 million in long liquidations, the move appears driven by spot and perpetual buying rather than forced covering, potentially supported by renewed corporate demand,” the firm wrote.

QCP added that post-expiry positioning has meaningfully shifted.

Elevated funding rates on Deribit signal dealers are now short gamma on rallies, which contributed to hedging flows when bitcoin briefly topped $90,000.

A decisive move above $94,000, they noted, could amplify that effect.

Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that leverage-heavy positioning is trending in the opposite direction of what a market bottom typically requires.

Traders added roughly $2.4 billion in new leverage during December, even as activity dropped 40% and its Fear Index sat at 27, a reading normally associated with risk aversion rather than aggressive positioning.

“True bottoms form when leverage clears, not builds,” CryptoQuant said, pointing out that bitcoin and ethereum futures open interest rose from $35 billion to $38 billion during the downturn.

The firm added that whales withdrew 20,000 BTC while retail traders increased leveraged long exposure, highlighting a split between professional and speculative capital.

Read Next: Why JPMorgan Is Cutting Off Stablecoin Neobanks In Latin America Despite Crypto-Friendly Messaging

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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