Bitcoin heads into 2026 with a clear macro risk: President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. In 2025, crypto traders saw tariff headlines move prices as fast as ETF flows.

Several tariff levers now sit on the 2026 runway. Some already have dates. Others depend on diplomacy and court fights. Either way, they can flip sentiment from risk-on to risk-off in hours.

How Trump Tariffs Moved Crypto in 2025

Tariff escalations in 2025 repeatedly triggered broad sell-offs across crypto. 

When Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China in early February, Bitcoin slid to a three-week low near $91,400. Etherum fell about 25% over three days, and a large share of top tokens dropped more than 20% in a day as traders rushed to cut risk.

Crypto Market Cap Througout 2025. Source: CoinGecko

Then came April’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock and the US–China escalation. Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,000 during the worst of the risk-off wave, alongside a sell-off in crypto-linked stocks. 

However, once the White House signaled possible pauses, crypto rebounded. By May, after the US and China agreed to a temporary tariff truce, Bitcoin climbed back above $100,000, while ETH jumped sharply. 

Digital asset funds also saw fresh inflows during the relief phase.

The sharpest stress test arrived in October. After Trump floated a new 100% tariff on Chinese imports tied to rare-earth tensions, Bitcoin dropped over 16% in a fast move.Liquidations surged, with reports of $19 billion wiped out in forced closes across exchanges in a single day. As of December 2025, the market still hasn’t recovered from this liquidation shock.

Biggest Crypto Liquidation Events in History. Source: Coinglass

1. The Deferred 100% China Tariff Cliff

This tariff would add a new 100% duty on all Chinese imports, unless talks produce a deal. Trump announced it in October 2025 and later pushed it out, putting late 2026 in focus.

If Trump reactivates it, markets will price weaker growth and stickier inflation. That combo can hit Bitcoin by tightening financial conditions, pushing traders out of leverage, and dragging risk assets lower in sync.

2. A Higher Global Baseline Tariff

The US president previously hinted at a potential increase in the across-the-board import tariff beyond the 10% baseline imposed in 2025. Trump also campaigned on a much higher universal rate, which keeps this risk alive.

A baseline hike would not be a one-day headline. It would act as persistent pressure on risk appetite. 

For Bitcoin, that usually means choppier rallies, thinner dips getting bought, and higher sensitivity to rate expectations.

3. Digital Services Tax Retaliation Tariffs on Europe

These would be new tariffs targeting countries that impose digital services taxes or similar rules on US tech firms. Trump warned in 2025 that countries keeping these taxes could face “substantial” tariffs.

If the US hits EU or UK exports, global equities can reprice lower. Crypto tends to follow that risk-off tape first. 

In 2025, that dynamic helped turn tariff headlines into fast, liquidation-driven drops.

4. Pharmaceutical Tariffs that Could Rise Toward 200%

This tariff targets imported branded or patented drugs, with penalties for firms that do not shift manufacturing to the US Trump signaled very high rates in 2025 and positioned the policy as an industrial reshoring tool.

If rates climb toward 200% in 2026, investors may treat it as an inflation impulse. Bitcoin can attract “hedge” talk during inflation scares, but trading often moves the other way first: risk assets sell as liquidity tightens.

5. Expanded Secondary Tariffs Tied to Sanctioned Trade

Secondary tariffs would punish countries for buying oil or goods from US adversaries, even if those countries are not the direct target. Trump introduced the concept in 2025 and applied it in a high-profile way.

If Trump expands this tool in 2026, it can pull more countries into tariff crossfire and raise global uncertainty. 

For Bitcoin, the biggest channel is volatility. More uncertainty usually means wider swings, more forced selling, and slower recoveries unless liquidity improves.