XRP trades near $1.85, trapped in a descending channel since early October.
Long-term holders reversed three weeks of selling to accumulate 15.90 million XRP on December 29.
Whales simultaneously reduced holdings by 130 million tokens worth approximately $241 million in recent days.
The conflicting behavior creates friction that blocks breakout attempts above the channel's upper trendline.
What Happened
XRP has declined 15% over the past month despite $70 million in weekly institutional ETF inflows.
Long-term holders began accumulating again on December 27, adding 9.03 million XRP after sustained selling between December 3 and December 26.
Short-term holders expanded from 9.58% of supply on November 29 to 12.32% by December 29.
Large whale cohorts holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP reduced positions from 8.23 billion to 8.13 billion tokens on December 28.
Wallets holding 1 million to 10 million XRP dropped from 3.58 billion to 3.55 billion, adding $55 million in sell pressure.
Technical analysis shows XRP must hold above $1.79 support to prevent testing the channel breakdown toward $1.27.
A daily close above $1.98 resistance would neutralize bearish structure and target $2.28.
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Why It Matters
The divergence between retail and institutional accumulation versus whale distribution reveals market uncertainty at critical technical levels.
XRP ETF assets have crossed $1.25 billion, but price action remains disconnected from institutional inflows.
Whale behavior historically precedes major price movements, making current distribution patterns significant for near-term direction.
Short-term holders typically drive rapid price moves but also create the first layer of selling pressure during volatility.
The technical pattern projects a 41% downside risk if the $1.48 level fails, while breakout above $1.98 could trigger recovery toward previous resistance zones.
Exchange balances have dropped 34.18% over two months, creating a liquidity vacuum that amplifies price swings in either direction.
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