About 10% of banking jobs across Europe could disappear by 2030 as lenders lean harder on AI, with analysts saying that more than 200,000 roles are now exposed over the next five years.

The forecast comes from Morgan Stanley, which reviewed 35 banks employing around 2.12 million people combined. A straight 10% workforce reduction equals roughly 212,000 job cuts.

The expected job cuts focus on central services, meaning back-office roles, middle-office teams, risk management, and compliance units; basically the parts of banks where automation replaces repeat work fastest.

Banks are targeting central service jobs for AI replacement operations

Morgan Stanley said many lenders expect efficiency to increase by as much as 30% from AI and deeper digital use.

Banks have already started acting too, like in November, Dutch lender ABN Amro said it plans to cut about 20% of its full-time workforce by 2028. In March, Société Générale chief executive Slawomir Krupa warned that “nothing is sacred” as the French bank tries to shrink a stubborn cost base.

Morgan Stanley analysts said AI helps improve cost-to-income ratios, one of the most watched metrics by investors. These ratios remain high at many consumer-focused lenders, especially in France and Germany.

Branch networks remain expensive. Digital channels are cheaper. AI fits directly into that math. Across Europe, banks serving retail customers face the biggest shake-up as more services shift to apps and automated platforms.

The surge in AI use has also sparked fear well beyond banking. Several industries already face job losses as software replaces people. Financial services sit near the top of that list. Analysts warn that this wave will not stay limited to support teams. Over time, more functions could be affected as systems grow more capable.

Executives warn speed matters as training risks grow

At UBS, analysts say AI already changes how banks present themselves to clients. The firm has started turning analysts into digital avatars, sending recorded AI-generated videos to customers.

Jason Napier, head of European banks research at UBS, said banks have not yet delivered clear efficiency gains, as cost bases remain large and powerful tools are still early in deployment. Napier added that anyone doubting AI’s impact should spend time testing tools already available.

UBS also sent 250 senior leaders to Oxford University for an AI leadership summit in recent months. The goal was to prepare top executives for wider rollout decisions.

Still, caution exists. Conor Hillery, co-chief executive for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at JPMorgan Chase, warned banks not to move too fast. He said leaders must avoid losing sight of core skills while rushing toward automation.

JPMorgan aims to use AI to speed up basic work while still training junior staff in fundamentals like cash flow models and price-to-earnings ratios. Hillery said failing to balance both could create future problems.

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