Lighter (LIT) is a decentralized perpetual futures exchange built on Ethereum Layer 2. After distributing 25% of its total supply through an airdrop, investors expect LIT’s market capitalization to continue rising.

Why do investors remain optimistic about Lighter’s potential, and what risks should be considered now? The following article examines these questions in detail.

Lighter Valuation Surpasses Pump.fun And Jupiter

Previously, Lighter raised $68 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion. Shortly after launch, Coinbase listed LIT with the LIGHTER-USD trading pair. The price currently fluctuates around $2.7–2.9, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $2.7 billion.

After the airdrop, the market observed significant activity from a whale investor. On-chain analytics account Lookonchain reported that at least three whale wallets deposited 9.98 million USDC into Lighter to purchase LIT.

A BeInCrypto report stated that large buyers are absorbing LIT supply. This behavior helps sustain buying pressure and support the price. It suggests that some investors believe in LIT’s upside potential, especially during its early price discovery phase.

Top Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Altcoin According to FDV. Source: CoinGecko

Data from CoinGecko shows that, despite being newly launched, Lighter’s valuation has surpassed Pump.fun and Jupiter. Lighter now ranks fourth in the Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Coins sector, behind Hyperliquid, Aster, and Uniswap.

Investors believe Lighter’s FDV may not stop at $2.7 billion. They expect it could rise significantly higher.

Investors Expect Lighter (LIT) Valuation to Match Aster or Even Hyperliquid

Several reasons support this belief.

First, in terms of attention, Lighter stands out clearly. Dexu AI reported that Lighter (LIT) currently holds the highest mindshare among perpetual derivatives protocols.

After Jupiter and Hyperliquid, Lighter recorded strong growth in the number of “smart followers.” In addition, Lighter has a strong community of maxis. It ranks third, behind Hyperliquid and Aster.

Second, despite its recent launch, Lighter has achieved a 24-hour trading volume comparable to Aster. Its volume closely trails Hyperliquid. Lighter’s 7-day and 30-day volumes even outperform both competitors.

“Very close competition. Hyperliquid. Lighter. Aster. Only one will win…” investor Alex said.

Perp Volume by Protocol. Source: DefiLlama

As a result, investors believe Lighter has the potential to reach an FDV similar to Aster, around $5.5 billion. This scenario implies that LIT’s price could double from its current level of $2.7.

Some investors even expect LIT to overtake HYPE. Hyperliquid’s FDV stands at around $25 billion. This would suggest nearly a tenfold increase for LIT.

However, these comparisons rely heavily on hype-driven sentiment. Some analysts strongly disagree.

What About The Risks?

An X user, Henrik observed that Lighter lost approximately 25% of its open interest over the past three weeks. He also compared the P/E ratios of the two projects. The comparison shows that LIT trades at a higher valuation than HYPE, despite having weaker fundamentals.

“Given this, LIT is currently more expensive than HYPE on both circulating and fully diluted metrics, despite weaker fundamentals. Additionally, 100% of Hyperliquid revenue is directed toward buybacks, while LIT’s revenue distribution and token value accrual remain unclear. Fundamentally, there is no clear catalyst for LIT, and airdrop-related churn is likely to persist for some time,” Henrik said.

Comparison between LIT and HYPE. Source: Henrik

Additionally, the decline in revenue following the Token Generation Event (TGE) raises concerns. Analyst TylerD observed that Lighter’s revenue dropped from $1.5 million per day on November 21 to $150,000 per day in December. This represents a tenfold decline.

Daily Revenue of Lighter. Source: DefiLlama

Historical data show that airdrop incentives often drive trading volume higher, temporarily boosting revenue. For long-term growth, however, Lighter must prove clear advantages over competitors. The project must also remain resilient against broader market headwinds.