Key Notes
Tether accumulated Bitcoin amid a market-wide correction on the first day of 2026.
Bitcoin recorded over $1 billion in ETF outflows with its weakest Q4 performance in years.
Analyst suggests three key scenarios to expect for Bitcoin’s movements in the coming months.
2025 ended with a weak performance from Bitcoin , but Tether, the company behind the world’s largest stablecoin USDT , saw an opportunity to buy more BTC.
As Bitcoin fell from the $88,000 mark, Tether added another 8,889 BTC, valued at $778.7 million, to its reserves, Lookonchain shared in an X post. The firm withdrew the assets from the Bitfinex crypto exchange.
Tether(@Tether_to) withdrew another 8,889 $BTC($778.7M) from #Bitfinex to its reserve address 5 hours ago.
Tether now holds 96,370 $BTC($8.46B) in total.https://t.co/Ptsy2BsPoE pic.twitter.com/NLowYx79bx
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 1, 2026
The company behind USDT now holds 96,370 BTC, worth $8.46 billion.
Despite the bullish calls from the community, under Lookonchain’s post, Bitcoin continued its bearish consolidation. The leading cryptocurrency is down by 1.1% in the past 24 hours and is trading just under $87,500 at the time of writing.
Related article: Gold Silver Rally but Bitcoin Fails to Catch Up: Weak Liquidity or Market Manipulation?
The US-based spot BTC exchange-traded funds also recorded a net outflow of $348.1 million on Dec. 31, according to data from SoSoValue.
These investment products saw a monthly net outflow of $1.09 billion in December 2025, showing weak institutional demand amid macro uncertainty.
Is a Recovery Possible?
The crypto market has always been famous for its high volatility. However, the recent market situation, with more lows than highs, is a product of multiple negative catalysts, including macro conditions, institutional outflows, whale selloffs, and weaker retail demand.
Due to the dominant bearish momentum, Bitcoin just recorded its weakest Q4, with a decline of 23%, for the first time since 2018, according to Coinglass data.
A CryptoQuant analyst says Bitcoin’s current momentum suggests “insufficient structural confirmation for strong upside momentum.”
Reframing Bitcoin in 2026: Scenarios, Structure, and On-Chain Signals
“At present, a range-bound structure remains the most plausible baseline for 2026, subject to reassessment as structural data evolves.” – By @xwinfinance
Read more ⤵️https://t.co/C8lSnxUfoc pic.twitter.com/q0SEUZrxv6
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 1, 2026
The analyst expects three key scenarios for Bitcoin.
First, the expectations of a rate cut, but a weak economic recovery could put Bitcoin in a highly volatile range of $80,000 to $140,000.
Second, the rising risk of a recession, which would trigger strong ETF outflows, could push the BTC price toward the $50,000 zone.
Last but not least, if BTC-based investment products experience stronger outflows under favorable macro conditions, the leading crypto asset could trade within the $120,000 to $170,000 range.
