Key Notes
The MSCI index exclusion of MSTR stock could lead to an $8.8 billion rout, according to JPMorgan.
Ongoing share issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases, a planned $11 billion ATM program, and a mNAV below 1 have weighed on sentiment.
Despite the selloff, analysts note that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings still significantly exceed liabilities.
On Dec. 31, the MSTR stock continued with its decline, ending 2.35% down for yesterday’s trading session at $151.95. 2025 has been brutal for Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), with the stock now losing its premium over Bitcoin . All eyes are now on the Jan. 15 deadline and whether the stock faces an MSCI Index exclusion.
MSTR Stock Trades at 52-Week Low
Strategy’s MSTR stock has touched a new 52-week low at $151.95 amid continuous selling pressure. Over the past six months, the stock has declined more than 65% from its peak of $450, back in July 2025.
With the Bitcoin price crashing to $87,000 and a weak 2025 for the asset, the impact on the MSTR stock has been more pronounced. While the crypto community was abuzz over the discussion of Strategy (MSTR) entering the S&P 500, the stock is now facing a major challenge ahead.
The MSTR stock faces the deadline of Jan. 15 over exclusion from the MSCI Index. This is as per the new index rule, which states that digital assets treasury (DAT) companies with over 50% of their total assets in cryptocurrencies are investment funds, instead of operating businesses. JPMorgan has predicted outflows up to $8.8 billion if this rule kicks in.
This triggered a major selling pressure in the MSTR stock during Q4 2025. Moreover, the fall over the last six months has eroded more than $90 billion of the company’s market cap.
Strategy isn’t in the S&P 500. But if it were, its 47.5% decline in 2025 would make it the 6th worst-performing stock in the index. @Saylor claims the best thing a company can do is buy Bitcoin. Well, that’s basically all $MSTR did, and the strategy destroyed shareholder value.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 31, 2025
What’s Ahead in Store for 2026?
Amid the broader crypto market selloff, pessimism for the MSTR stock has been on the rise. Investors are also uneasy about ongoing shareholder dilution, as the company continues to issue new shares to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. Strategy is still planning to deploy an additional $11 billion through at-the-market (ATM) offerings.
Another major concern that remains is Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), which has fallen below 1 in recent months. This shows that the MSTR stock trades at a discount to its underlying asset value.
Related article: Strategy (MSTR) Stock Falls as Bitcoin Hovers Around $87K
However, not all hope is lost among analysts. Even if Bitcoin were to fall to $74,000 from current levels near $87,000, the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would still be estimated at roughly $49.8 billion.
According to Bull Theory, this comfortably exceeds the company’s liabilities. They noted that such a price move would not create insolvency risk. Furthermore, recent reports note that institutional interest in MSTR stock is picking up once again.
The market expert also noted that the company does not use margin loans, has no collateral-backed Bitcoin debt, and faces no liquidation triggers tied directly to Bitcoin’s price.
