Bitcoin (BTC) closed the fourth quarter of 2025 with its second-worst Q4 performance on record, highlighting how sharply market momentum deteriorated after October’s peak.
Data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin fell 23.07% in Q4 2025, a result that sits far below its historical fourth-quarter average return of 77.07% and median return of 47.73%.
The only worse Q4 performance in Bitcoin’s history occurred in 2018, when prices collapsed 42.16% during the depths of the previous bear market.
The weak quarter capped a turbulent end to the year that contrasted starkly with Bitcoin’s long-term seasonal pattern, where Q4 has historically been its strongest period.
Q4 2025 Breaks Bitcoin’s Seasonal Pattern
Since 2013, Bitcoin’s fourth quarter has typically delivered outsized gains, often coinciding with post-summer recoveries and year-end risk appetite.
Coinglass data shows that Q4 has produced positive returns in the majority of years, with several triple-digit advances during prior bull cycles.
That pattern broke decisively in 2025.
After hitting record highs earlier in the quarter, Bitcoin reversed sharply, erasing gains and closing the period with a double-digit loss.
The -23.07% return places Q4 2025 as a clear outlier against historical norms, surpassed in severity only by the 2018 capitulation.
Ethereum Posts One Of Its Weakest Q4s
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s weakness, recording a 28.28% decline in Q4 2025.
According to Coinglass, this ranks as the fourth-worst fourth quarter in Ethereum’s trading history.
While Ethereum has also tended to benefit from strong year-end performance in past cycles, Q4 2025 instead reflected broad-based risk aversion across digital assets, with losses extending beyond Bitcoin into major altcoins.
Year-End Losses Reshape The Market Narrative
The magnitude of Q4 losses has reshaped how investors assess late-cycle risk.
Historically, strong fourth-quarter performance has reinforced bullish sentiment heading into new years.
In contrast, the sharp declines seen in both Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q4 2025 highlight a market that entered the final months of the year under sustained pressure rather than recovery momentum.
With Bitcoin posting its second-worst Q4 on record and Ethereum logging one of its weakest year-end quarters, the data exhibits how exceptional the 2025 finish was relative to more than a decade of crypto market history.
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